Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 18 – NFL Playoffs Wildcard Weekend
1/4/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 18 – Wild Card Weekend
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 17 was the “cherry on top” of another profitable NFL season. Most sportsbooks reported an excellent weekend, retaining between 2-3% of their handle. The Public posted another losing weekend. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 3-7. For the season, that makes the Public 59-72-8 = 45.0%.
SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis finished on a winning note, going 1-0 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 26-19-2 = 57.8%. Not bad for a free weekly column. If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a membership. This weekly column is designed to highlight the revolutionary sports betting information found on SportsInsights.com. As much fun as football is to bet and watch, basketball has been our most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport. Basketball produces mores plays and a higher win percentage. Take your winning from this year’s NFL Sports Marketwatch and purchase a Premium Pro Membership at SportsInsights.com. Your bankroll will thank you!
NFL Game to Watch:
2005: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007: 26-19 = 57.8%
View Last Week’s Column
I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to a profitable NFL Season, by going 26-19 =57.8%. Visit SportsInsights.com to view Live Betting Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.
Basketball – Produces More Plays + Higher Win %
This weekly column is designed to highlight the revolutionary sports betting information found on SportsInsights.com. As much fun as football is to bet and watch, basketball has been our most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport. Basketball produces mores plays and a higher win percentage. Take your winnings from this year’s NFL Sports Marketwatch and purchase a Premium Pro Membership at SportsInsights.com today. Your bankroll will thank you!!
NFL Wild Card Weekend – Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers
By far the most lopsided bet game of the weekend is Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh. The Public is betting Jacksonville like they know the score! At the time of writing, almost 3 out of 4 bets placed are coming in on Jacksonville, even though they are on road. Public money has pushed Jax from a 1 pt Underdog to a 2.5pt Favorite. That’s 3.5pt swing! You very rarely see a home team Underdog in the playoffs. There is a tremendous “buy back” opportunity taking Pittsburg +2.5 at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (Bodog)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
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