NFL Marketwatch Week 17 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 17
12/28/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 17

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 17 went the way of the sportsbooks. The shops we spoke with all reported winning between 1-2% of their handle. Chicago’s surprising win over Green Bay plus San Fran’s upset over Tampa Bay broke up a lot of Teaser and Parlay action. Arizona, Cleveland, Detroit all failing to cover – helped keep the sportsbooks in the black.

The Public posted another losing weekend. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-6. For the season, that makes the Public 56-65-8 = 46.3%. Games to Watch analysis stumbled again, going 1-2 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 25-19-2 = 56.8%. Not bad for a free weekly column. If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit and sign up for a membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
This time of year is tough for the oddsmakers, as teams that can’t improve their playoff position look to sit starters. In addition, there are some horrible and meaningless match-ups. We anticipate Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and San Diego to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 17 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

New Orleans vs Chicago Bears

Near the end of the NFL regular season, there is documented evidence of value on “home dogs.” Please visit’s Resources and Articles for a summary of this tendency. Our readers know that the “name of our game” is finding value in the sports investing marketplace.

In this match-up, we like the Chicago Bears as the home dog. In addition, the Bears have been playing a lot better the last couple of weeks. With both teams having little or nothing to play for – we like the home crowd as the difference.

Chicago Bears +2

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 17.

Games to Watch (25-19-2)
Chicago Bears +2

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio