NFL Marketwatch Week 16 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 16
12/21/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 16

Recapping Last Week

The Public posted a losing weekend. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-5. For the season, that makes the Public 52-59-8 = 46.8%. Games to Watch analysis bounced back from its late season let down, going 3-0 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 24-17-2 = 58.5%.

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and San Diego will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 16 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers

This is an interesting play for the Sports Marketwatch. We typically like to take underdogs. In this case, however, we see big value on a double-digit favorite. We want to “buy” the Dallas Cowboys off of their loss last week (losing to the lowly, last-place, Eagles). In addition, we want to cash in on Carolina’s positive showing during their victory over first-place Seattle last week.

This is a unique opportunity to receive “value” on one of this year’s Superbowl contenders – against one of the league’s lowest-scoring teams. Our readers know we like to “buy low” (Dallas after a bad loss) and “sell high” (Carolina after a big win). In addition, the line opened at Dallas -13 but has traded down to Dallas -10.5. Take Dallas and the huge 2.5 point value – and look for the Cowboys to bounce back strongly.

Dallas Cowboys -10.5

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints

SportsInsights’ exclusive “Betting Percentages” from multiple sportsbooks show that almost 2 out of every 3 bets are coming in on New Orleans. Our readers and members know that we like to “Bet Against the Public” and take the same sides as the “sharps” and sportsbooks.

The Philadelphia Eagles are playing some of their best ball of the year while New Orleans has been inconsistent all year. In addition, the Eagles have played more quality opponents than the Saints (as well as a tougher schedule), so that the Eagles’ 6-8 record is at least equivalent to the Saints’ 7-7 record. Take the Eagles plus the points.

Philadelphia Eagles +3

Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers

With more than 4 out of 5 bets coming in on San Diego at the time of writing, the Public is piling onto the Charger bandwagon. These two teams look headed in opposite directions. The Chargers have now won four in a row and are living up to their pre-season hype as Superbowl Favorites.

However, this is a tough divisional match-up, so we look for Denver to play the Chargers tough. Indeed, based on the two teams’ results versus quality opponents, the Broncos look like a much bigger challenge than the Charger-9 line suggests.

We’ll “sell” San Diego after their blow-out victory over Detroit. In addition, we’ll “buy” Denver after their embarrassing 31-13 loss to the Houston Texans. Denver played on Thursday night – so they’ll be well-rested and have an extra 3 days to prepare. We like Denver as a good “contrarian value play.”

Denver Broncos +9

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 16.

Games to Watch (24-17-2)
Dallas Cowboys -10.5
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Denver Broncos +9

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio