NFL Marketwatch Week 15 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 15
12/14/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 15

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 14 was a bloodbath for the sportsbook industry. All sportsbooks reported a long day of payouts on Monday, losing between 5-7% of their handle. 10 out of 14 favorites covered, which means a lot of 3, 4, 5, even 6 team parlays hit this week. It was the worst day of payouts this NFL season.

The Public posted a monster weekend. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 6-3. For the season, that makes the Public 48-54-8 = 47.1%. Games to Watch analysis continued its downward spiral, going 0-3 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 21-17-2 = 55.2%.

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to be significantly up as bankrolls are flush with last Sunday’s winnings. You’ll see $50 become $100. We anticipate Cincy, Green Bay, Seattle, Indy, and Minnesota will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 15 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

This is a big one. Revenge for the Patriots on the “tattle-tale” Jets. And a chance for the lowly Jets to stand up to the mighty Patriots in a bitter divisional rivalry. The point spread is a huge 24 points and the bets are fairly evenly split. However, our contacts at the sportsbooks report “sharp” action on the Jets.

The line opened at NY Jets +24.5 but “sharps” started driving the line down to 24 and 23.5 fairly quickly. At the time of this writing, there were still some 24’s left. Grab the points and go with the smart money.

New York Jets +24

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers

The public is overwhelmingly on Seattle, with more than 3 out of 4 bets coming in on the Seahawks. Seattle’s strong 42-21 showing against a decent Arizona squad, combined with Carolina’s meek 37-6 loss to Jax gives us the “value setup” that we like to see.

We’ll buy Carolina on a low and sell Seattle on a high. Seattle has now run off 5 wins in a row and is gaining a “public” following. We’ll make the contrarian play and “bet against the public” and take the growing number of points, which opened at Carolina +7 and is now +9 and +8 in some places. That’s 1-2 points of added value, right near the “key 7” number.

Carolina Panthers +8

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota has won 4 in a row while the Bears have lost 2 in a row. Again, we see value by “buying” the “cold” team, and “selling” the “hot” team. Chicago is better than its 5-8 record suggests. Note that the Bears’ “Points For” versus “Points Against” is not bad at 253-296. We think the Bears will make a game of it.

This is a big Monday Night Football game and the public is riding the favorite as usual. The Public sees a hot Minnesota team that is fighting for a playoff spot. We see a Bear team playing on national television getting double-digit points in a divisional match-up. By game-time, you might be able to find Chicago at more than +10.

Chicago Bears +10

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 15.

Games to Watch: (21-17-2)
New York Jets +24 (
Carolina Panthers +8 (Bodog)
Chicago Bears +10

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio