NFL Marketwatch Week 14 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 14
12/07/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 14

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 13 was lucky for the sportsbook industry but not so lucky for our Games to Watch feature. Handle sizes were up with a lot of marquee match-ups in Week 13. Most sportsbooks reported holding over 5% of their handle. Buffalo beating Washington outright broke up a lot of 1pm Parlay/Teaser actions. While Arizona and Oakland winning broke up all the late “junk.” The Public tried to recoup Sunday’s loses by pounding the “piggy bank” called New England. Forget about the 19pt spread: the Patriots were lucky to escape with a win.

The Public posted another losing Sunday. They’ve lost 11 out of the last 12 Sundays. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 2-4. For the season, that makes the Public 42-51-8 = 45.2%. Games to Watch analysis continued its downward trend, going 0-3 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 21-14-2 = 60.0%.

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to taper off as the Public is licking its wounds from last Sunday. We anticipate Dallas, San Diego, Minnesota, and New Orleans to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 14 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans

With more than 3 out of 4 bets coming in on the Chargers, the point spread has actually moved from pick’em to Tennessee -1 at some sportsbooks. We spoke to our line-makers at the sportsbooks – who confirm “sharp money” on the Titans.

As “value investors,” the Sports Marketwatch is always on the lookout for an edge in terms of “value.” The Chargers were one of the preseason Superbowl favorites – with superstar “LT” looking unstoppable. The Chargers stumbled out of the gate – but we believe their resurgence has created an “overvalued” Charger team.

Our readers know that we like to “Bet Against the Public” and look for sports marketplace “situations” that signal “smart money” – just like this. The Titans are tough at home – so grab the pick’em line while you can.

Tennessee Titans Pick’em

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

The New York Jets present a similar “smart money” situation that the Titans show above. “Joe Public” is overwhelmingly on Cleveland, to the tune of 81%! With less than 4 out of 5 bets coming in on the lowly Jets – the line has actually moved towards the Jets.

The line opened at Cleveland -3.5 and has had a huge move off of the “key” -3.5 to the -3.0 level. Big, “sharp,” money is coming in on the NY Jets. We also like the fact that the Jets are home dogs – that are starting to show some signs of life with a promising young QB.

New York Jets +3.5 (

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Our weekly readers know that some of our plays require a bottle of Pepto Bismol nearby. We often need bad teams to do good things – and this is a classic example.

We see “contrarian value” by selling the Vikings “on a high” – particularly after their 42-10 blowout win over Detroit. The Vikings have now won three in a row – and have their stud rookie RB, Adrian Peterson back. The Public is all over Minnesota – and that creates value for the other side.

The 3-9 SF 49ers don’t look like much of a challenge, but this is exactly the type of “ugly game” where value can be found. Historically, home dogs near the end of the NFL season have some teeth to go with their bark. Take the 49ers plus the “near-double-digit-points” – plus a shot of Pepto. Near game-time, the spread might widen to +10.

San Francisco 49ers +9.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 14.

Games to Watch (21-14-2)
Tennessee Titans Pick’em
New York Jets +3.5
San Francisco 49ers +9.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio