NFL Marketwatch Week 13 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 13
11/30/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 13

Recapping Last Week

For first time in over two-and-a-half months the Public came out on top, big. Most sportsbooks reported losing between 3-5% of their handle. Minnesota and San Fran, both big underdogs, winning outright, kept the sportsbook industry from getting crushed. Those games broke up a lot of parlays and teasers. But the Public still managed to hit a large amount of 3, 4, 5 Team Parlays + Teasers, which translates into a long day of payouts for the sportsbooks on Monday.

The Public posted their first winning Sunday in over ten weeks. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went an impressive 6-3. For the season that makes the Public 40-47-8 = 45.9%. Games to Watch analysis hit a bump in the road, going 0-1 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 21-11-2 = 65.6%.

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to remain strong in NFL Week 13 as the Public is flush with winnings from the previous week. Marquee match-ups like the Thursday Night football game between Green Bay vs Dallas – as well as Indy vs Jacksonville, Tampa vs New Orleans will make this another exciting week in the NFL. We anticipate San Diego, Cleveland, Denver, and New England to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 13 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

This game has all the makings of a “classic value play” on a “home dog.” The public is on the first-place Chargers in a huge way, with 9 out of 10 bets coming in on San Diego. There appears to be a soft line, with the line opening at just SD -4 against a 4-7 (win-loss) KC Chief team.

We see value in this game, with the line moving through some decent “key” numbers, from KC +4 to +6. We like the home dog in a divisional rivalry – and note that home dogs have historically performed well near the end of the season. Look for the divisional race to tighten up as KC shows up to play.

Kansas City Chiefs +6

Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints

Our insiders at the sportsbooks report “sharps” buying up the New Orlean Saints, pushing the line from NO -3 (big key number!) to NO -3.5 with the bets coming in fairly evenly on both sides. As our readers know, we like being on the same side as the “smart money.” We also like the Saints at home in this match-up.

An additional reason to like this play is that Tampa Bay QB Garcia is not projected to play. He’s the glue that holds the TB Buc offense together – so we’ll lay the points and take the Saints.

New Orleans Saints -3.5

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings blew out a solid NY Giant team last week by a 41-17 score. A two-game winning streak for the Vikings, combined with a three-game losing streak by the Lions makes us want to buy the Lions at a low, and sell the Vikings at a high. We see good “contrarian value.”

This is a big divisional match-up with playoff implications. We see Detroit bouncing back and Minny coming back to the ground. Take the Detroit Lions plus the huge (more than a FG!) 4 points.

Detroit Lions +4

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 13.

Games to Watch (21-11-2)
Kansas City Chiefs +6
New Orleans Saints -3.5
Detroit Lions +4

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio