NFL Marketwatch Week 11 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 11
11/16/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 11

Recapping Last Week

All sportsbooks reported healthy handle sizes in NFL Week 10, attributed to some good divisional rivalry games and the media hype surrounding the Sunday Night game between Indy and San Diego. NFL Week 10 was a winning endeavor for the sportsbooks, keeping 3-4% of their handle. All the big decision went the way of the sportsbooks. New Orlean’s implosion against hapless St Louis, Arizona hammering Detroit, and finally Indy’s losing out against San Diego ensured another profitable Sunday for the books.

The Public posted their ninth consecutive losing week. (Yikes, that’s over 2 months!) analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 2-3-1. For the season that makes the Public 30-40-6 = 42.9%. Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 3-0 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 19-10-1 = 65.5%.

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to remain strong in NFL Week 11 as the Public attempts to cash in again on some apparent “soft lines.” We anticipate Cleveland, New England, Pittsburgh, and Indy to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 11 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

This game is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided-bet games of the day. The Public is overwhelmingly on Cleveland, with almost 9 out of 10 bets coming in on the Browns at the time of writing. Surprisingly, the line has started to move against the Public, a telltale sign of “smart money” coming in on Baltimore.

Baltimore, which stood at 4-2 just 3 weeks ago, has now lost three games in a row and looks a very mediocre 4-5. The Ravens look like they can’t score for their lives. However, the Raven defense is still strong – and we look for them to bounce back in this divisional match-up.

We like getting a FG with a tough and angry home dog, especially with a strong defense like Baltimore’s. Look for the divisional and playoff races to tighten.

Baltimore Ravens +3

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals

With 2 out of 3 bets coming in on the Bengals, the line has moved AGAINST the Public Betting percentage. The line has made a huge move around the key number 3, with Cincy going from -3.5 to -3. Our contacts at the sportsbooks verify sharp action on the Arizona Cardinals.

Memories take time to fade, but the Bengals are no longer the elite team they were just two years ago, when they won their division by going 11-5. In addition, the Cardinals are no longer the league doormat like they were last year, when they were a last place team. Take the Cardinals and the 3.5 while it’s still around. As usual, we’ll go with the smart money, fade the public – and go with value.

Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (

Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys

Don’t look now, but there’s a “new kid in town.” And actually, it’s not just any “new kid” – it’s America’s Team, the Dallas Cowboys. With the Colts suffering back-to-back losses, the 8-1 Cowboys appear to be the Patriot’s new challengers.

After the Cowboy’s convincing win over a strong NY Giant squad, there’s starting to be a media frenzy around Tony Romo’s Cowboys. This, combined with Washington’s tough loss against Philly in the previous week, make us feel we can sell the Cowboys on a high and buy the Redskins at a low.

The Redskins have held their own while playing in the strong NFC East Division and we see value on Washington in this divisional rivalry. In addition, SportsInsights’ data shows that the line opened at Dallas -11, only to have sharps quickly buy Washington and push the line down to -10.5 (while 75% of the bets are coming in on Dallas!).

Washington Redskins +10.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 11.

Games to Watch (19-10-1)
Baltimore Ravens +3
Arizona Cardinals +3.5  (
Washington Redskins +10.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio