NFL Marketwatch Week 10 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 10
11/09/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 10

Recapping Last Week

All sportsbooks reported significantly higher handle sizes in NFL Week 9, attributed to the media frenzy surrounding the Indy vs New England show down. NFL Week 9 was a winning endeavor for the sportsbooks, keeping 1-2% of their handle. New England failing to covers and Minny winning outright were the biggest contributors to a profitable Sunday for the sportsbooks.

The Public posted their eighth consecutive losing week. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 1-1-1. Remember when you factor in “the juice,” going .500 is losing. For the season that makes the Public 28-37-5 = 43.1%. Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-1 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 16-10-1 = 61.5%.

View Last Week’s Column

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Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to remain strong in NFL Week 10 as the Public attempts to cash in on some apparent “soft lines.” We anticipate New England, Indy, Detroit, and Dallas to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 10 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

SportsInsights’ exclusive data verifies what our sportsbooks contacts are saying: that “smart money” is going to Jacksonville. This is a situation where recent performance is giving us value on Jax.

Tennessee has won three games in a row. Meanwhile, Jacksonville lost badly to New Orleans, 41-24 last week. With the Public loading up on Tennessee, we see value on Jax in this huge divisional match-up.

The status of QB Garrard will be a game time decision. We believe he’ll play and add a much-needed passing threat to the Jaguar’s offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5  (

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

The line opened at KC -4. However, even with almost 8 out of every 10 bets coming in on KC, the line dropped to KC -3! That is a huge move to the “key 3” number, meaning “big money” is coming in on Denver.

The sharps are on Denver, “buying on bad news” – after last week’s embarrassing loss to Detroit. We’re optimistic that Denver QB Cutler will start and be effective. We’ll join the “sharps” and expect Denver to make some noise in the tight AFC West scramble.

Denver Broncos +3

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

The public is pounding their bets down on Detroit like they know the score. A massive 9 out of 10 bets are coming in on Detroit. STILL – the line actually reversed (!!) – with the line opening at Detroit -1 but moving to Arizona -1.5 in some places.

This is a seemingly “soft line,” with the 6-2 Detroit Lions being a 1 point dog to a 3-5 Arizona team. “Soft lines” often indicate “value” – and in this case, the “smart money” is on Arizona big time. Another source of value on Arizona – is Detroit’s thrashing of the Broncos last weekend. Let’s sell Detroit on a “high” and grab the “zero pick-em line” that’s still out there.

Arizona Cardinals Pick’em   (

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 10.

Games to Watch (16-10-1 = 61.5%)
Jacksonville +4.5
Denver +3
Arizona Pick’em

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio