NFL Marketwatch Week 21 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 21 – SuperBowl Edition
2/2/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle ,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 21 SUPERBOWL

NFL Regular Season

For the NFL Regular season Games to Watch produced an impressive 31-18-1 = 63.3% record. Not bad for a free weekly column. If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit and sign up for a membership. Your bankroll will thank you for it!

• 2006 Games to Watch = 31-18 = 63.3%
• 2005 Games to Watch = 33-25 = 56.9%
• Overall = 64-43 = 59.8%

NFL AFC/NFL Championship Recap

All sportsbooks reported a healthy AFC/NFC playoff weekend, retaining between 2-3% of their handle. Steve Stone line manager at Oasis had this to say, “Chicago winning big was the key to a profitable Sunday. New Orleans was the big Public favorite taking in about 70% of the Public money. There was a ton of parlay and teaser action tied to New Orleans.” New Orleans getting steamrolled by Chicago broke up the majority of exotic bets that translated into a profitable Sunday for the sportsbooking industry. NFL Playoff Edition Games to Watch bounced back in the Conference AFC/NFC Championship round going 1-0. Chicago proved once again that Defense wins championships. The NFL Playoff Edition Games to Watch is 2-1. View last week’s column *Source:

NFL Playoff Edition – Games to Watch (2-1)

Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears

This year, as in years past, the AFC is widely considered the dominant conference due to the inter-league pounding the NFC took during the regular season. Most of the major online sportsbooks opened at Indy -7. Pinnacle did open at -6 and within minutes took enough early Indy -6 money that they quickly moved to 7, finally settling at 6.5.

The sportsbooks we spoke with – all reported taking “even” Public action on both teams, but significantly more Sharp money on Chicago +7. The line has moved from 7 to 6.5 at a lot of sportsbooks (CRIS + Pinnacle), but there are still plenty of 7’s for the taking.

We’ve been on the Chicago Bears this entire playoff run. Why stop now? This time of year, it’s about Defense. The great thing about Defense is the Public consistently undervalues it. The Public and Media love scoring and high-flying offensive teams – and continually overvalue them. All the media wants to talk about is Indy’s offense and Manning’s golden arm – and how Rex Grossman is possibly the worst QB ever to play in a Super Bowl. Let’s face it: if a “Trent Dilfer QB’ed team” can win a Super Bowl, then a Defense CAN and WILL win a Super Bowl. Sorry Trent!

We fully anticipate the Chicago Defense will rise to the challenge. We like the fact that early Sharp money is on Chicago +7. We believe there is tremendous value in getting the Bears at +7. They are a well-coached squad that has the motivational advantage of playing the underdog role. They have an impressive Defense complemented by a strong inside running game. We’re taking the Bears +7 and looking to finish off the NFL season by cashing in a winner.

Chicago Bears +7

Games to Watch – Playoff Edition (2-1)
Chicago Bears +7

It should be another exciting NFL Playoff weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

Enjoy the Big Game!

Daniel Fabrizio