NFL Marketwatch Week 18 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 18 – Wild Card Weekend
1/05/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle ,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 18

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 17 was the “cherry on top” of one of the most profitable NFL seasons on record for the sports betting industry. Most sportsbooks reported an excellent weekend, retaining between 3-4% of their handle. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted a small winning weekend, going 2-1. Over the last 15 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 42-71-1 record. Games to Watch analysis finished strong on its “march to the bank,” going 2-0. For the season, that makes Games to Watch an impressive 31-18-1 = 63.3%. Not bad for a free weekly column. If you have enjoyed the insights this column proves, please be sure to visit and sign up for a membership. Your bankroll will thank you for it!

2006 Games to Watch = 31-18 = 63.3%
2005 Games to Watch = 33-25 = 56.9%
Overall = 64-43 = 59.8%

View last week’s column. *Source:

Special Thanks
I’d like to thank the line managers at BetUs, Oasis, Bowmans, Pinnacle, Carib and 5Dimes for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to a profitable NFL Season, by going 31-18 =63.3%. Visit to view Live Betting Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.

NFL Wild Card Weekend – Games to Watch

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

The line opened at Indy –6.5 to -7, and has stabilized at –7 at most books. The playoffs and interesting matchups have piqued the public’s interest in betting the playoff games – so there’s already lots of action. We have reports of sharp action on Indy, with heavy betting on both sides of the game. If you shop around, you can still grab Indy at –6.5. We’ll join the smart money and take Indy minus the points, at home, as they look to make more noise than they did in last year’s playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts –6.5 (Bet at Canbet -6.5)

It should be another exciting NFL Playoff. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio