NFL Marketwatch Week 16 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 16
12/22/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle ,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 16

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 15 started off great for the sportsbooks on Thursday evening, as heavy underdog San Fran won outright. But after the dust settled, Week 15 went the Public’s way. The shops we spoke with all reported losing between 2-3% of their handle. It was the second worst Sunday of the season for many sportsbooks. Washington coming out of nowhere to beat New Orleans, and Tampa Bay nearly stealing one in Chicago helped break up a significant amount of Teaser and Parlay action and kept the day from being a bloodbath for the sportsbooks. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted their second winning weekend, going 4-2. Over the last 13 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 36-63-1 record. That doesn’t pay the bills! Games to Watch analysis continues its “march to the bank,” sweeping the board, going 3-0. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 29 -16 = 64.4%.

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate KC, Indy, Chicago, and San Diego to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to pick up as the Public has some cash in their accounts following back-to-back winning weekends. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 16 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Kansas City vs Oakland Raiders

How bad is Oakland? It takes a strong stomach to pick Oakland this weekend, and this is exactly why we’re taking them. The Public has been pounding KC since this game opened at KC -4. CRIS quickly retreated to 6 before settled in at 6.5. We believe this line is now shaded 3pts.

There are a couple of 7’s on the board. We’re taking Oakland +7 at Bodog, immediately followed by a shot of Pepto. The +7 Home Dog value is just too good to pass up.

Oakland Raiders +7 (Bet at Bodog +7)

Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills

The Sports Marketwatch has been on the Vince Young bandwagon even before there was a “bandwagon.” However, as in the financial world, it often pays to jump off the bandwagon when every publication is writing about someone or something. In this case, almost every sports publication is high on Vince Young.

We think that the Vince Young train derails in Buffalo. Through our contacts with line managers, we received reports of heavy sharp money on Buffalo. The sports marketplace action and line movement confirms that the “big money” is on the Bills. In addition, Mother Nature might be a factor as this relatively mild winter gives way to 30-degree weather and the potential of snow at game time. We’ll tag along with the sharps and Mother Nature.

Buffalo Bills -4.5

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

This looks like a classic trap game. Detroit should be getting more than 10 points. Many bettors know that Chicago has clinched the NFC (and home field advantage until the Superbowl). However, even MORE people know that THESE are “Da Bears” – and they are powerhouses once again.

With more than 9 out of 10 bets coming in on “Da Bears” AND the line moving down to 5, we like being on the side of the Sharps. We’re taking Detroit +5.5 at Bodog,

Detroit Lions +5.5 (Bet at Bodog +5.5)

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 16.

Games to Watch (29-16)
Oakland Raiders +7  Bet at Bodog +7
Buffalo Bills -4.5
Detroit Lions +5.5  Bet at Bodog +5.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio