NFL Marketwatch Week 15 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 15
12/15/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle ,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 15

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 14 went the way of the Public. The shops we spoke with all reported losing between 2-4% of their handle. It was one of the worst Sunday’s of the season for many sportsbooks. The only saving grace was Indy and New England losing badly, which broke up a lot Teasers and Parlays wagers. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted their FIRST winning weekend in over 2 months, going 7-4. Over the last 12 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 32-61-1 record. That doesn’t pay the bills! Games to Watch analysis continues it’s “march to the bank,” going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 26-16 = 62%.

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

A lot of mismatched games this week – with 6 out of 16 games offering 10+ spreads or higher. We anticipate Chicago, New Orleans, San Diego and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to pick up as the Public attempts to cash in on last week’s blowouts. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from five online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 15 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

Tennessee has proven they can win. They believe they have a chance to win every time QB Vince Young steps on the field. We circle this game to cash in on Jacksonville’s thrashing of Indy last week. The sports media has been pumping up Jacksonville as not only a playoff team but also a Super Bowl contender. We believe the media hype has pushed this line 2pts.

We circled this game because Tennessee is a squad on a roll, plus getting +3.5 at home. Jacksonville plays to the other team’s ability. They are very “up and down.” We’re locking in excellent Home Dog value +3.5 and looking for Vince Young to continue to break down defenses with his running ability and good decision-making.

Tennessee Titians +3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears

This game will be one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week. Chicago appears to be getting back on track, while Tampa Bay continues it downward spiral. Plus throw in the fact Tampa Bay has to play on the road in the cold, and you have the makings for a 13.5 pt spread. If there one thing we’ve all learned from watching the NFL this season: it’s that Rex Grossman gets rattled. When he gets rattled Chicago can be beat. We’re taking the value in Tampa Bay +13.5 and looking for their Defense to turn up the heat and cause a lot of turnovers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14    Bet at Bodog +14

Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts

Oh how quickly fortunes changes! Indy has been a Public team all season. Now the Public has abandoned them in favor of the high-flying Cincinnati Bengals. Indy is coming off their worst loss in years. We circled this game because Indy is a well-coached team that will use last week’s loss as a motivator. Cincy has been playing much better the last couple of weeks, but we believe Indy will expose their defense. And there is one thing you don’t want to do: get in a shoot out with Indy. We like Indy only laying 3 pts at home against an inferior team.

Indianapolis Colts -3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 15.

Games to Watch (26-16)
Tennessee Titans +3.5
Tampa Bay Bucs +14   Bet at Bodog +14
Indianapolis Colts -3

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio