NFL Marketwatch Week 14 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 14
12/08/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle ,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 14

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 13 was a “grind-it-out” Sunday for the sports betting industry. Handles were up from the previous week but when the dust settled, the sportsbooks had little to show for it. The shops we spoke with all posted small profits, retaining between 1-2% of their handle. Tennessee beating Indy outright broke up some parlays and teasers action, but many key games “landing on or around the number” meant lots of teaser winners. Anyone that placed a teaser bet on San Diego/Buffalo, Minn/Chicago, or Dallas/NYG cashed in a winner. Jacksonville blowing out Miami and Cleveland stunning KC helped the sportsbooks stay above water. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their ELEVENTH consecutive losing weekend, going 3-4. Over the last 11 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 25-57-1 record…ouch! Games to Watch analysis continues its “money makin’” march, going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 24-15 = 61.5%.

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate Tennessee, Indy, New England, and Atlanta to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to pick up as the Public attempts to cash in on last week’s blowouts. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from five online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 14 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Tennessee is officially a team to be “reckoned” with. They are coming off two of the biggest come-from-behind upset wins of the year over the Giants and the Colts. Then why are they 1pt underdogs to the lowly Houston Texans? We circled this game because it’s a classic trap game. If the line looks too good to be true, bet the other side! This will be one of the most lopsided bet games of the week, and that’s just how the odds makers want it to be. All week, on every major sports program, it’s been the Vince Young highlight show. We’re putting our money with the sportsbooks and looking to profit from the media hype surrounding the Titans.

Houston Texans Pick’em

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

This is a classic example of buying on bad news and selling on good news. It’s common knowledge that the Public bets based on the previous week’s performance. Last week the New York Jets blew-out the hapless Packers 38-10 at Lambeau Field. And the Buffalo Bills got hammered most of the day by San Diego – but managed a quiet “back door cover”. The sports media has been hyping up the Jets as a team that has “arrived.” We believe the oddsmakers sense the Jets are now a Public team and are shading the line 2pts. We’re taking a hard-hitting Buffalo square +4 and looking for the Jets to play soft.

Buffalo Bills +4

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

This is a divisional rivalry pitting two well-coached teams against one another. Yes, Miami stumbled last week against Jacksonville. But we can’t resist Miami getting +3.5 at home. They’ve been playing great football the second half of the season and have historically given New England trouble in Miami.

This play has a lot going for it: fading the public, divisional rivalry – and the fact that Miami is a home dog late in the season!

Miami Dolphins +3.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 14.

Games to Watch (24-15)
Houston Texans +0
Buffalo Bills +4
Miami Dolphins+3.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio