NFL Marketwatch Week 13 2006-07

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 13
12/01/2006  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle ,, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 13

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 12 was lackluster for the sports betting industry. Handles were down significantly from this time last year. The sportsbooks we spoke with posted small losses on Sunday. The straw that broke the camel’s back for a lot of sportbooks was Indy blowing out Philly in the 8pm – and the MNF game “landing on the number” which means teasers on both sides hit. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their TENTH consecutive losing weekend, going 4-4. As we all know, winning 50% of your games is losing in the sports betting world. Over the last 10 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 22-53-1 record…ouch! Games to Watch analysis bounced back, going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 22-14 = 61.1%.

View last week’s column. *Source:

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate Indy, KC, New England, and San Diego to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to pick up as the Public attempts to cash in on obvious mismatches. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from five online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 13 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Although Chicago has been knocked around the last couple of weeks, they are still the best team in the NFC. There is a lot of negative press swirling around the Bears’ unpredictable QB Rex Grossman. The Bears’ coaching staff is committed to keeping Rex on the field. We believe Chicago will get back to playing their brand of football: good defense and ball control offense. Minnesota is a broken team that will be on the receiving end of a motivated and focused Chicago squad.

Chicago Bears -9

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

We circled this game for the Home Dog value. Yes, Indy is the cream of the AFC, but they have to take their show on the road. Tennessee will look to exploit Indy’s glaring weakness: run defense. Tennessee is coming off the biggest come-from-behind win of the year. Rookie QB Vince Young will be playing with a lot of confidence in front of the hometown crowd. Tennessee will be well coached and prepared for a dogfight with Indy. We’re locking in Tennessee +7.5 at home and looking for Young to pull off another improbable victory.

Tennessee Titans +7.5

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

Seattle really didn’t look that impressive on Monday Night. Denver has finally thrown in the towel on veteran QB Jack Plummer and opted for rookie QB Jay Cutler. We like the fact Seattle is struggling and has to play on the road at Mile High. We’re looking for rookie QB Jay Cutler to spark the Denver offense and get them back to playing winning football.

Denver Broncos -3.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 13.

Games to Watch (22-14)
Chicago Bears -9
Tennessee Titans +7.5
Denver Broncos -3.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio