NFL Marketwatch Week 7 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 7
10/21/2005  11:15 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 7

NFL Week 6 Recap
All sportsbooks reporting healthy handle sizes for NFL Week 6. With the majority of last week’s games offering 3 for the line, the public jumped all over the already popular Teaser bet. As many bettors know, betting through 3 and 7 will dramatically improve winning potential.

“Every weekend it comes down to breaking up teasers and parlays”, said Steve Stone line manager at Oasis. “What’s tough about teasers is both sides win when the game lands on or close to the betting line”.

Such was the case in NFL Week 6 with 4 games landing on or close to the betting line which spells disaster for the sportsbooks. The only book reporting a positive weekend was Bowmans, who managed to hold a little more than 1% of our handle. analysis shows that in games with over 70% of the action on one side the public posted another losing record 2-3. Games to Watch analysis bounces back from it first non profitable weekend (2-2) and posted a 2-1 record for NFL Week 6. If readers waited until game time to bet the Carolina vs Detroit game as we suggested, you’d have gone 3-0 this weekend! This game illustrates why it is so important to lay a good number. But we had to use the line available to us on Thursday for the column. We always stick to what we put in print, so Carolina vs Detroit was a Loser. Overall, that makes 18-7 = 72%
View last week’s column.

NFL Week 7 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
With all those Teasers hitting last week handle sizes will increase this weekend. Look for the public to lay any number put out by the books. The public teams continue to be Indy and Seattle. Let’s see what NFL Week 7 has in store.

The theme of this week is how bad are Houston and Minnesota? One of the main topics of this column is line value and how to find it. This week is a good case study for finding value where the public has overreacted to negative press and the previous week’s performance.

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Indy vs Houston 

Are there any two teams in the NFL heading in more opposite directions? The NFL’s only winless team goes up against the NFL’s only unbeaten team. The lowly Houston Texans just seem to get worse, while Indy methodically steamrolls one team after another.

The line opened 14.5 and quickly got bet to 15.5. Pinnacle and Bowmans reporting some Sharp buy back at 15, but the majority of public money chasing Indy. Simon Noble line manager of Pinnacle reports “We opened the game at 15 and received large hits from sharps at +15. We dealt briefly at +13 but were then flooded with Indy money. It looks like the sharps are on Houston at +14 or higher, while the public is favoring Indianapolis”. A similar statement came from Scott of Bowmans, “we’ve seen a couple of Sharps pop us at 15.5 but even at this early stage the public money is overwhelming on Indy”.

I expect public money to continue pouring in on Indy driving the line to 16 or 16.5, before Sharp buy back knocks it down to 15.

Play on Houston +16                   Bet Houston +19

Green Bay vs Minn

Early public money chasing Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers. This game is a classic case of the public overreacting to last weeks scores and negative press. There are a lot of negative stories surrounding the Vikings. “When it rains it pours…and it’s pouring in Minnesota” joked Steve Stone of Oasis. When teams get beat up in the press and suffers a bad lose the pervious week, I look for line value. Minnesota is coming of a horrible lose to Chicago and the media is following every move they make, getting 2-3pts at home is a great value play.

Play on Minnesota +2                   Bet Minnesota +5

Kansas City vs Miami

The game has already seen it share of drama. It’s been moved up to Friday evening because of hurricane Wilma. If you’ve already bet Sunday’s game, your ticket has most likely been refunded. You need re-bet the game based on Friday’s scheduling number.

One of few games this week with interesting line movement. The line opened at KC -1.5 and saw a huge flood of KC money, BUT the line moved against the public and ended up at Miami -2. That’s a 3.5pt move! Scott from Bowmans reports “we opened a KC -1 and were instantly got hit by a couple Sharp players”.

I anticipate this game will move similar to last weeks Carolina vs Detroit game. Public action should push this game back to a Pick or KC -1. As always our money is with the Sharps, Miami Pick or +1. I’d wait to Sunday to bet this game.

Play on Miami -1                          Bet Miami +2

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 7.

Games to Watch (18-7)
Houston +16
Minnesota +2
Miami -1

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Daniel Fabrizio