NFL Marketwatch Week 6 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 6
10/13/2005  3:15 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 6

NFL Week 5 Recap
As predicted NFL Week 5 saw significantly higher handle sizes resulting in 8 major decisions for the books.

NFL Week 5 was a wash for most sportsbooks. “The Arizona game would have made it a solid weekend….instead all teasers on the Arizona hit. The Jacksonville game also hurt.” commented Steve Stone line manager at Oasis. 5Dimes also reported similar results, “There were a lot of teasers tied in with Indy and Arizona. Arizona blowing it in the 4th quarter pretty much wiped out any chance for a profitable weekend.” analysis shows that in games with over 70% of the action on one side the public was a lackluster 2-2. Games to Watch analysis posted it’s first losing weekend going 2-2. Overall, that makes 16-6 = %.727
View last week’s column.

NFL Week 6 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Look for handle sizes to continue improving this week. The public teams are Indy, Carolina, NE, and Cincinnati. Let’s see what NFL Week 6 has in store.

Carolina vs Detroit
View Live Stats –

All books reporting early square action on Carolina +1, but oddly enough a couple of books have moved to 1.5. 5Dimes reports “On Tuesday we got hit by a couple of sharp players causing us to move to 1.5.” Both Hollywood and Grande are also offering 1.5.

I expect public money to continue pouring in on Carolina. The line should move back to 1 or a pick before game time.

Play ON Detroit -1

New England vs Denver
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New England once again proves it can win with injuries. Brady has been elevated back to Joe Montana status. “One of the best match-ups of the weekend”, noted the 5Dimes line manager. “We’re hoping that Mile High air helps us out this Sunday. We’re seeing a lot of early public money pounding the Pats at +3 and it’s shaping up that will need Denver big.”

Bowmans line manager Scott Kaminsky reports receiving some early sharp Denver money. “We had two sharp players come and take Denver -3 -115, but come Sunday we’ll need Denver.”

Play on Denver -3

Minn vs Chicago
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Early sharp money on Chicago moving the line quickly to -3.

“We initially opened this at +1.5. The early money was on the Bears, driving the price to +3 -111. At this point, there was opposition between two syndicates with orders going out on the Vikings +3 and an unnamed group that’s already beaten us out of $1.5m this year taking Chicago. This will probably be our highest volume NFL game thanks to this dueling syndicate action.” reports Simon Noble line manager a Pinnacle.

“We saw significant sharp action come in on Monday on Chicago.” remarked Scott of Bowmans.

Lots of media attention surrounding this games because a boat party attended by Vikings that allegedly involved drunkenness, nudity and visible sexual activity on a pair of charter cruises last week. It’s good to know the 1-3 Vikings are having fun on a sinking ship.

Play on Chicago -3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 6.
Games to Watch (16-6)
Denver -3
Detroit -1
Chicago -3

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Daniel Fabrizio