NFL Marketwatch Week 5 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 5
10/6/2005  2:35PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first four weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for week 5 in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 5

NFL Week 4 Recap
As predicted NFL Week 4 saw significantly lower handle sizes because of the previous three week losing streak by the public. Steve Stone line manager at Oasis put it best, “you can’t bet what you don’t have.” But after a dismal start, NFL Week 4 went decidedly the public’s way. All books reported their first losing NFL Sunday of the season. “Teasers really hammered us this weekend,” noted Scott Kaminsky line manager at Bowmans. “The late games on Sunday and Monday Night Football were the worst possible outcomes…pretty much all teasers hit which means a long day of payouts for the accounting staffs.” analysis shows that in games with over 70% of the action on one side the public was a lackluster 2-2. Most of the sportsbooks loses came because of teasers and games will smaller decisions 60-70% range, the public was 5-0.* However, Games to Watch analysis posted it’s fourth straight winning weekend going 2-1. Overall, that makes 14-4.
View last week’s column.

NFL Week 5 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Look for handle sizes to bounce back this week. The public has a little more money and a lot of confidence. This week is already shaping up to have eight major decisions in contrast to last week which only had four major decisions. Let’s see what NFL Week 5 has in store.

Tampa Bay vs New York Jets
View Live Stats –

Early sharp money taking NYJ +3.5. “We opened at 3.5 and quickly moved to 3 after taking some early sharp money on the dog,” said Scott Kaminsky from Bowmans. There is some uncertainty if Cadillac Williams will play and be effective but the consensus feeling is that public action will push this line back to 3.5.

Play on New York Jets +3.5

Miami vs Buffalo
View Live Stats –

Buffalo opened at -2.5. The oddsmakers couldn’t have made it any clearer. They want the public to take Miami. Buffalo is coming off a bad loss to the displaced Saints. Right now, this line looks too good to be true. We tag this one as a trap game. As expect early public action is predominantly coming in on Miami. A couple of books have opened at 3 and stuck to it. “We feel 3 is the correct number and plan to stick to it,” says Scott of Bowmans.

The overall analysis at is that this line will move to 3 and stay there. We’re betting this game early Buffalo -2.5.

Play on Buffalo -2.5

Indianapolis vs San Francisco
View Live Stats –

Indianapolis is coming off an impressive trouncing of Tennessee and looks to pounce on the hapless 49ers. Adding to the mix is the fact that the 49ers will have a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. “This will be one of the biggest decisions for the books,” says’s line manager. “I think they could put 21 points on this game and you’d still get action on the Colts. Just about every parlay and teaser will include Indianapolis.”

As expected a lot of early public money has been put on Indianapolis. The uncertainty around the San Francisco quarterback situation has also attracted some sharp players. Oasis and both report some early sharp action on the Colts. The game opened at 14 and quickly moved to 15. Let’s face it, you don’t see at 15 point home underdog in the NFL that often. Wait to bet this game late, we anticipate the line to move to 16-16.5.

Scott Kaminsky of Bowmans says bluntly, “you’d need balls of steel to take San Francisco.” One the toughest things about Fading the Public is that you continually have to bet on the worst teams. It goes against basic instincts…but is exactly because of this bias that fading is profitable. You’ll get an extra 1-2 points just because of the public and media’s negative perceptions and biases. For this reason, San Francisco is a great value play.

Play on San Fran +16

Carolina vs Arizona
View Live Stats –

Carolina continues to be a public favorite. Early public money is pouring in on Carolina but early sharp action on the dog pushed this line to 2.5. “We opened at 3 and saw a lot of early public money taking Carolina 3, then ‘wham’ – a couple of our sharp players, sensing a real value at 3, bet the line down t 2.5,” remarked line manager.

“Early sharp action moved us off 3 but I expect the flood of public money to push this game back to 3 on Sunday,” reports Bowmans. We’re following the sharp money and taking Arizona +3 at home.

Play on Arizona +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 5.
Games to Watch (14-4)
New York Jets +3.5
Buffalo -2.5
San Fran +16
Arizona +3

It should be another wild NFL Week 5. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest lines directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Daniel Fabrizio