NFL Marketwatch Week 4 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 4
9/27/2005  1:35PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s EARLY edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of provides readers with unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass!

NFL Week 3 Recap
NFL Week 3 had the public begging for mercy again! At this rate the public will be busted the first month of season. All books reporting their THIRD STRAIGHT MONSTROUS NFL Sunday. analysis shows that in games with over 70% of the action on one side the public was a miserable 0-3.’s Games to Watch feature was an impressive 4-1. Overall that makes 12-3 for the NFL Season. View last week’s column,

NFL Week 4 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Look for handle size to be noticeably down this week, caused by three continuous weeks of the sportsbooks beating their players. . So far, September has been very good to the sportsbooks. All of the top sportsbooks are reporting record-breaking revenue with Sharp accounts flush with cash – and  there’s still 3 days left in the month. You can expect to see some decent line moves this week with all that Sharp cash out there.

Let’s see what NFL Week 4 has in store of us.

San Diego vs New England
View Live Stats –

A lot of books opened up at -5.5 and quick saw Sharp action take San Diego +5.5 beating the line down to -5.  Steve Stone Line Manager at told me “We opened at -5.5 expecting a lot of public action but immediate got hit by couple big accounts”. Pinnacle conversely opened at -5 and have pretty much remained their.

Line Manger Simon Noble of Pinnacle reports,
“This year, games with these two teams have averaged 49 points per game. It is early in the season though, and team statistics tend to revert somewhat towards the mean. We opened this with a total of 45 and were flooded with over money at a ratio of eight wagers on the over for every one accepted on the under. Even after we moved to 47, there is still upward pressure as part of the market is trading at 47.5. Those who played over 45 got great value, but how much? The 45 hits about 3% of the time; the 46 hits 1.5% and the 47 hits 3% of the time. Therefore over 45 should win a little over 55% of the time. Thanks to -105 pricing, those early sharps netted at least an 8% theoretical yield on their bets.”

Play ON San Diego +5

Houston vs Cincinnati
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Here’s a clash of two teams heading in opposite directions. Houston was touted by most sports writers as a playoff contender, but has yet to show up on Sunday. The big surprise with Cincinnati isn’t the fact they’re winning, but how easily they’ve dismantled their first three opponents.

Of course, this is shaping up to be a classic trap game. Expect the media to pump-up Cincinnati and degrade Houston. It’s already happening. But really… -9.5??? The sportsbooks are just begging the public to take Cincinnati. We expect the public action to move this line to -10, -10.5, and then look for Sharp action to beat it back to -9.5. Houston +10.5 is great value play. Your getting at least 1.5-2pts of shade. We’ll take it every time.

I talked with Scott Kaminsky line manger at who said that, “This is shaping up to be our biggest decision of the week”.

Play on Houston +10.5

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
View Live Stats –

How many of you read our comments on last week’s Indianapolis versus Cleveland game and thought we were crazy? If you remember, we said Cleveland wasn’t that bad and at +15 was a great value play.

The “Can’t Miss” Colts are still the public darlings, even after failing to cover the last two Sundays. It’s all about public perception which is fuel by media hype. The media loves Manning and the Colts so the public continues to bet them.

Pinnacle reports, “We opened this game at -6.5 flat, and all the early action was on the Colts. When it was bet down to -6.5 -109, we started to get money trickling in on the dog, mostly bought up to +7. For now, we are siding with the dog bettors and accepting Colts money by holding our price. As with all games lined on the “3” and “7”, we are seeing a lot of point buying through the key number.”

Bowmanss and Oasis reporting heavy square action on Colts -6.5. A lot of books moved to -7 but were quick beat back by Sharp action to -6.5. is one of the few books holding the line at 7. Line Manager at 5Dimes reported, “We feel 7 is the correct number and see no reason to move off it.”  Home dogs +7, I’ll take it every time!

Play ON Tennessee +7

That’s it for the early look at week 4 of the NFL season. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy – we’ll be back Friday night to update you on the latest lines directly from the top online sportsbooks.

For real-time Sports Investing tools – keep your browser pointed to

Daniel Fabrizio