NFL Marketwatch Week 18 Playoffs 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves PLAYOFF Edition
NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Weekend
1/06/2006  11:35 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasisabout which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.Sports Marketplace – Season Recap

NFL WEEK 17 Recap
NFL Week 17 continued the sports betting industry’s push to salvage a profitable NFL season. Most sportsbooks reported an excellent weekend, retaining between 4-5% of their handle. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, “the Public” posted a losing record, going 3-5. Games to Watch analysis posted another profitable weekend, going 2-1. For the season, that makes Games to Watch an impressive 33-25 = 56.9%.
View last week’s column

Special Thanks
I’d like to thank the line managers at Oasis, Bowmans, Pinnacle, Carib and 5Dimes for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to a profitable NFL Season, by going 33-25=56.9%.

NFL Playoffs
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the public will be heavily on one side. The amount of “sharp money” buying back the shaded lines is dwarfed by “public money”.

We anticipate Pittsburgh to be the most “lopsided-bet” game of the week. Visit to view live wagering statistics from six online sportsbooks.

NFL Playoff Edition – Games to Watch

Washington Redskins vs Tampa Bay Bucs
View Live Stats –

The line managers at Oasis, 5Dimes, and Bowmans reported taking heavy two-way Sharp Money. This is evident in the game’s back and forth line movement. The line opened at Tampa Bay -3 and -2.5 at most books. The line has been moving back and forward between these two numbers. I like the value in Tampa Bay -2.5 playing at home.

Tampa Bay -2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots.
View Live Stats –

New England begins their quest for a third straight Super Bowl. This match up is also receiving a lot of two-way sharp action. Simon Noble line manager at Pinnacle said, “After opening at Jacksonville +7.5, we saw heavy balanced two-way action. The sharps are split on this game as well.” Judging from little or no line movement, the sportsbooks are content with +7.5. I like getting +7.5 for a talented defensive squad like Jacksonville.

Jacksonville +7.5

Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants
View Live Stats –

Pinnacle, Carib, and Oasis all report heavy Sharp Money on Carolina. Simon Noble of Pinnacle reports, “This is our highest volume game of the week. After opening with Panthers +3 -120, the sharps drove the line to +2.5. This is a classic money duel between the sharps on Carolina, offset by public money on the Giants. Money continues to pour in on both sides, with the sharps matching the public bettors dollar for dollar.” Readers of this article know it pays to follow the Sharp Money. I’m hoping for +3 to appear before kickoff.

Carolina +2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
View Live Stats –

One of the rare times you’ll see a home underdog in the playoffs. What happened to home field advantage? This is a good example of the odds makers handicapping the “public” and not worrying about Sharp Money buy back. Pittsburgh has been a “public” team all year. Odds makers know this and take full advantage of the fact novice bettors will bet Pittsburgh -1, -2, and even -3. Why not start at Pittsburgh -3? As expected, the majority of public money is coming in on Pittsburgh. Steve Stone, line manager at Oasis, stated, “We took a good amount of Sharp Action on Cincy +3, but we still overwhelmingly need Cincy. This is shaping up to be the most lopsided bet game of the weekend.” I’m taking the home dog and following the Sharp Money.

Cincinnati +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for the Playoff Edition of Games to Watch.

Games to Watch – Playoff Edition (0-0)
Tampa Bay -2.5
Jacksonville +7.5
Carolina +2.5
Cincinnati +3

Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with another special Playoff Edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio