NFL Marketwatch Week 15 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 15
12/16/2005  2:45 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasisabout which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 15

NFL WEEK 14 Recap
Week 14 saw a major turnaround for the sports betting industry. All sportsbooks reported a profitable weekend – with most retaining well over 7% of their handle. Scott Kaminsky, line manager at Bowmans, had this to say, “Finally the ball bounced our way.” Indy failing to cover was huge, as it broke up a ton of parlays. How they failed to cover – I have no idea. Cincinnati only winning by 3pts and Carolina losing outright broke up a lot Teasers. The sportsbooks were 7-3 in games with major decisions. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, “the Public” posted a dismal 3-7, giving back much of their winnings from Week 13. Games to Watch analysis got back to it’s winning ways, going 2-1. For the season, that makes Games to Watch 28-21= 57.1%.
View last week’s column

NFL WEEK 15 Preview
The match-ups for NFL Week 15 are rather lackluster: either good teams playing bad teams, or bad teams play bad teams. But with the playoff picture starting to materialize, there should be some intense games, as teams cling to playoff hopes and other teams look to be spoilers.

With three national TV games being played on Saturday, handle sizes will be up. I’d look for value in betting underdogs, as the sportsbooks will continue to shade lines in an attempt to recoup some revenue – and salvage something out of a dismal 2005 NFL season.

We anticipate Seattle, Indy, Carolina, and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.

NFL Week 15 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Pittsburgh vs Minnesota
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Pit vs Minn is one of the better match ups of the weekend. Pittsburgh is coming off a HUGE win over Chicago. Chicago was a must win game for them and they came through. Minnesota is a team on a roll, winning their last 6 games. I circled this game because Pittsburgh has to play on turf, inside – plus I love home dogs. I feel linemakers are taking advantage of the basic human tendency of overreacting to recent performances. Sure: Pittsburgh beat a talented Chicago Bears team, but when you look at Pittsburgh’s performance over the last month, you start to see a different picture.

Pinnacle was reporting taking Sharp action on Pittsburgh -2.5. The books I personally spoke with – all reported taking Sharp action on both sides at Pittsburgh -3. I like the fact Minnesota is a team in high gear and getting +3.5 at home.

Minnesota +3.5

Seattle vs Tennessee
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This is one of the most lopsided bet games of the week. I’m showing upwards of 85% on the spread bets coming in on Seattle, with an incredible 95% of teasers/parlays. That’s a good indicator of a trap game. It appears I’m not the only person that thinks this. The line opened at Seattle -7.5 and despite the flood of public money on Seattle the line has moved to Seattle -7. Is there any clearer indicator of Sharp Money on Tenn? Let’s not forget Seattle is historically a horrible road team and prone to late season collapses. This game has a lot going for it: Home Dog, Sharp Action, and lopsided public opinion.

Tennessee +7.5

Cincinnati vs Detroit
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The hardest thing about looking for line value is it’s found in betting bad teams. You need an iron stomach and unwavering belief in statistical analysis to be a good value bettor. It’s time to take our man pills and find out what the Detroit Lions are made of.

Cincinnati just barely won last week to an inferior Cleveland Browns squad. Detroit, despite their horrible record, has played a lot of teams tough. I like getting +9 points at home, and the fact the public is all over Cincinnati (88%).

Detroit +9

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 15.

Games to Watch (28-21)
Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Tennessee Titans +7.5
Detroit Lions +9

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest lines, directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Daniel Fabrizio