NFL Marketwatch Week 14 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 14
12/09/2005  1:05 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasisabout which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 14

NFL WEEK 13 Recap
And the hits just keep coming! NFL Week 13 continued the sportsbook march to one of their most miserable NFL seasons on record. NFL Week 13 witnessed just about every favorite covering. That’s bad news for the sportsbooks. All books reported large losses on NFL Sunday. Scott Kaminsky, head lineman at, summed it up best, “It was ugly. We pretty much lost every major decision. No other year since 1983, when I started in this business, has been close to how bad this year has been.” It’s always darkest right before the dawn. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, “the Public” posted an incredible 8-0! Yes, folks: 8-0. Games to Watch analysis posted a big goose egg, going a 0-3. For the season, that makes Games to Watch 26-20= 56.5%.
View last week’s column

NFL Week 14 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

NFL WEEK 14 Preview
After back-to-back-to-back MONSTER weekends for “the Public”, the sportsbooks are shell-shocked. The betting industry is on a record pace to post the worst NFL season in well over 25 years.

I anticipate handle sizes to continue to grow. With every favorite covering last week, look for the public to continue pounding big favorites. This week is already shaping up to have 13 major decisions.

We anticipate New England, Indy, Cincinnati, and Denver to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit for real-time wagering statistics and information.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills are a team falling apart at the seams. Why this game opened at New England –3, only the oddsmakers know. The line opened at New England –3 and, as expected, saw a huge flood of New England money. Steve Stone, line manager at Oasis, had this to say, “We opened at NE -3 and quickly retreated to -3.5. We did have a couple of Sharp accounts take Buffalo +3.5.”

Simone Noble, head lineman at Pinnacle, said he was receiving sharp action on both sides Buffalo +3 and NE -3. Public money is pushing this line to -3.5 and -4. At the time this article was published, was offering Buffalo +4.5. It’s gut-check time. I’m following the early Sharp money and taking Buffalo. Yes, you need a strong stomach to follow this weekly column.

Buffalo +4.5  BET Buffalo +4.5 at!

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Can anyone stop the “can’t miss” Colts? Jacksonville is one of the only teams remaining that actually might have a chance. “As expected, it’s been all Indy money since we posted the line,” said a 5Dimes line manager. “Indy’s been a HUGE public team all year and we see no reason why this should change.” There is little doubt that this will be one of the most lopsided-bet games of the weekend.

Simon Noble of Pinnacle has this to say, “We opened the game at Colts -7. Indy is clearly a public team and we are taking four times as many bets on them as the Jaguars. The sharps seem split on this game with some playing Indy at -7 and significantly more on Jacksonville at +7.5.” I love big home underdogs – and the fact that Pinnacle, Bowmans, and Oasis are all reporting significant Sharp action on Jacksonville.

Jacksonville +9.5

Oakland Raiders vs New York Jets
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Get the bottle of Pepto out and sit down before you read this selection. Yes, we’re once again taking the New York Jets. Regular readers know you need to have an iron stomach to follow this weekly column. It’s time to take our man pills and find out what the New York Jets are made of.

There are lots of positive indicators pointing towards the Jets. First, the Jets are home underdogs. Second, Oakland has to fly cross-country just to play in the brutal cold. Lastly, the line movements suggest Sharp action on the Jets.

The line opened at Oakland -3. The books we spoke with said they were taking large amounts of Public money on Oakland –3 – but sizeable Sharp money has come in on the Jets +3. Pinnacle has already moved to Oakland -2.5. I’m taking the New York Jets +3 and a triple shot of Pepto!

New York Jets +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 14.

Games to Watch (26-20)
Buffalo Bills +4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5
New York Jets +3

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio