NFL Marketwatch Week 12 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 12
11/23/2005  10:35 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 12

NFL WEEK 11 Recap
NFL Week 11 started off great for the sportsbooks but early gains were quickly eroded due to poor results in the 4pm and late games. Our six contributing online sportsbooks all reported a breakeven Sunday, most holding 1-3% of their “handle.” Steve Stone, line manager at Oasis, had this to say, “Sunday started off great, but man – those 4pm games killed us again.” Tack on KC blowing out the hapless Texans in the late game and the door was shut on the sportsbooks scratching out a profitable Sunday. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, “the Public” posted only their second winning weekend of the year, going 5-4. Games to Watch analysis got back to its winning ways, posting a 2-1 record for NFL Week 11. For the season, that makes Games to Watch 24-16= 60%.
View last week’s column.

NFL Week 12 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

NFL Week 12 kicks off with two primetime NFL games on Thanksgiving. Two nationally televised games will dramatically increase handle sizes, historically resulting in a 10%-20% spike. The public already has strong opinions on this year’s Thanksgiving Day games. This is either going to a BIG day, or a nightmare for the sportsbooks. Early public money is chasing both favorites on the road, the Atlanta Falcons and the Denver Broncos.

We anticipate Atlanta, Denver, Carolina, and San Diego to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit for real-time wagering statistics and information.

Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
View Live Stats –

There is nothing better than watching football while eating a HUGE turkey dinner. Traditionally, Detroit on Thanksgiving has been a profitable play. We’re sticking to tradition and the great value in betting a home underdog +3.5 on a national televised game. The line opened at 3 and has remained steady. I’m taking the early +3.5 offered at BetUS and looking forward to watching a great football game while stuffing my face.

Detroit +3.5   BET DETROIT +3.5 -110 at!

Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills
View Live Stats –

Scotty Kaminsky, head line manager at Bowmans, put it best, “You need to have a strong stomach to bet Buffalo this week.” I circled this game for two reasons. First, why only a 4 point spread? This appears to be a “soft” line. It’s just too easy. Second, although a flood of early public money has pounded Carolina -4 the line hasn’t budged. This is a good indicator of Sharp money holding the line steady.

“As expected, it’s been all Carolina money since we posted the line,” said Scott Kaminsky from Bowmans. “Carolina/Buffalo will be one of our biggest decisions of the week.” I believe this is classic trap game. I’ll be looking to get a 5 or 5.5 before I put my hard earned cash on Buffalo. At the time this article was published, the best number I could find was +4.5 offered by

Buffalo +4.5  BET BUFFALO +4.5 -110 at!

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks
View Live Stats –

Steve Stone had some interesting insights in this game’s line movement, “We opened this game Seattle +5, but immediately got hit by a couple of our Sharp accounts.” The other sportsbooks we spoke to experienced similar Sharp buy back. As readers of this column know, I always attempt to lay a good number and follow the Sharp money. I’m hoping to find a +5 before kickoff, but am going with +4.5 for this article.

New York Giants +4.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 12.

Games to Watch (24-16)
Detroit Lions +3.5
Buffalo Bills +4.5
New York Giants +4.5

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio