NFL Marketwatch Week 11 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves EditionNFL Week 11
11/17/2005  3:35 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 11

NFL WEEK 10 Recap
NFL Week 10 was packed with its share of excitement and upsets… proving once again “on any given Sunday” any team can win. Not one, but two 10-point underdogs won outright. That – and the Indianapolis Colts failing to cover – broke up a lot of “Teasers” and “Parlays.” Overall it was a profitable Sunday for the sportsbooks, most reporting holding between 5%-8% of their handle. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted a losing effort, 3-4. Games to Watch analysis continues to give back early season gains from Weeks 1-9, posting a 0-3 record for NFL Week 10. For the season, that makes Games to Watch 22-15= 59.4%.
View last week’s column.

NFL Week 11 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Look for continued growth in “handle size” in NFL Week 11. The bet of choice for “Joe Public” continues to be the “Teaser” and “Parlay” bet. We don’t expect this trend to change anytime soon. Early public money is chasing favorites Carolina, Jacksonville, Dallas, Seattle, and Indy. We anticipate Carolina, Jacksonville, and Denver to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the weekend. Visit for real-time betting statistics and information.

Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears
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Heavy one-sided “Square” action is coming in on the Carolina Panthers. Bowmans line manager Scott Kaminsky has this to say, “This game is light years ahead of any other game on the board in terms of the numbers of bets and money placed.” All sportsbooks are confirming a flood of “Square” money on Carolina; the public believes whole-heartily that 3 points is just too low a number.

The line opened at 2.5 and quickly saw most sportsbooks retreat to 3, although there are a couple of sportsbooks holding firm at 2.5, most notably Pinnacle and Hollywood. Bowmans confirmed receiving “Sharp” action on Chicago at +3. We’re taking Chicago as a +3pt Home Underdog, and laying our money once again with the Sharp money.

Chicago +3       BET CHICAGO +3.5 -110 at!

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos
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The New York Jets once again grace the Games to Watch feature. Oasis line manager Steve Stone put it best, “Every weekend it’s the same. We need bad teams to do good things”, and such is the case with the Jets. The New York Jets are coming off a bad loss to the Carolina Panthers. The Denver Broncos are coming off an impressive win over their arch-rivals, the Oakland Raiders. When bad teams play good teams we look for over-shaded lines and Value. We believe NYJ at a 13.5pt dog offers a lot of value.

“As we expected, it’s been all Denver money since we posted the line,” said Oasis line manager Steve Stone. “But some Sharp action at +13.5 has kept us from shading too much.” It appears other Sharp bettors sense value in NYJ. I like the value and the fact early Sharp money is coming in on NYJ.

I fully expect the Public money to far outweigh Sharp money; by Sunday I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of “+14pts” come Sunday.

New York Jets +13.5

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
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If you’re a regular reader of this column, then you know how much I love BIG underdogs at home. San Fran is getting +12.5 at home against a Seattle team that historically has had trouble on the road – and this is just too good to pass up. All the sportsbooks I spoke with echoed the feelings of Bowmans line manager Scott, “Seattle will be one our bigger 4pm games.”

The line opened at 12.5 and is holding firm, withstanding the flood of early “Square” action on Seattle. I anticipate the onslaught of Denver money to continue pushing this game off +13.5 by kickoff. Once again I’d wait until Sunday or when I see a +14 to bet the San Francisco 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers +13.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 11.

Games to Watch (22-15)
Chicago Bears +3
New York Jets +13.5
San Francisco 49ers +13.5

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio