NFL Marketwatch Week 10 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves EditionNFL Week 10
11/10/2005  3:15 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 10

NFL WEEK 9 Recap
NFL Week 9 was a blood bath for most sportsbooks in the industry. Steve Stone line manager at Oasis summed it up best, “When every favorite on the board covers, it gets ugly.” A lot of books got crushed on Sunday, many experiencing the worst day of payouts this season. The “can’t miss” Colts steam rolling of the Patriots on Monday Night Football just added more salt to the wound.

One exception was Bowmans. They reported holding a little over 1% of their “handle,” helped by a good day in the NHL and NBA. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted their first winning weekend of the season at 5-2. With pretty much every favorite covering, the public looked like they knew what they were doing. Games to Watch analysis limped along posting a 1-2 record for NFL Week 9. For the season, that makes Games to Watch 22-12= 65%.
View last week’s column.

NFL Week 10 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Look for handle size to increase in NFL Week 10, as most bettor accounts are fat with winnings. There is lots of early public money chasing favorites Carolina, Denver, KC and New England. We anticipate NE, Carolina, and Denver to be the biggest games of the weekend.

Knowing the public is coming off a big weekend, there should be a lot of value in betting underdogs, as sportsbooks look to heavily shade lines in an attempt to get some money back.

New England vs Miami
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New England is coming off their worst defeat in recent memory. Oddly enough, the early Public money is overwhelmingly on New England. line manager (like most sportsbooks) was surprised at the Public’s strong opinion on New England. “I knew the public was going to be on New England but I didn’t think it would be this one-sided. I guess the public senses a soft line.”

The line opened at 2.5 and quick saw Oasis and 5Dimes retreat to 3, although there are plenty of 2.5’s left on the board. The other books we spoke with, said early Sharp money on Miami +2.5 has kept them from moving to 3. We’re taking the 3pts offer by Oasis and 5Dimes, and laying our money once again with the Sharp money.

Miami +3

New York Jets vs Carolina
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The Jets’ 2nd half comeback kept our Games to Watch feature from posting a big goose egg. Knowing the public is coming off a big weekend, and Carolina is a HUGE public team, I look for a lot of value in betting the New York Jets.

“It’s been all Carolina money since we posted the line,” said Scott from Bowmans. “But we quickly moved to 9 when a couple of Sharp accounts hit us at +9.5.” It appears other Sharp bettors sense value in NYJ. At the time of the writing of this article CRIS was showing 8.5. I like the value and the fact early Sharp money has pushed this line from 9.5 to 8.5.

I fully expect the Public money will far outweigh Sharp money by Sunday. I’d wait to bet this game late on Sunday. I’ll be looking for a “10” come Sunday.

New York Jets +9.5

Denver vs Oakland
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All the books I spoke with echoed the feelings of Bowmans line manager Scott, “Oakland is going to be one of our biggest 4pm games.” The line opened at 3 and is holding firm withstanding the flood of Denver money. I anticipate the onslaught of Denver money to continue pushing this game off 3 to 3.5 by kickoff. Once again I’d be waiting until Sunday or when I see 3.5 to bet Oakland.

Oakland +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 10.
Games to Watch (22-12)
Miami +3
New York Jets +9.5
Oakland +3

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Daniel Fabrizio