Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 0-0
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Week 1
Last week, Marketwatch got an assist from Mother Nature as the Western Michigan/Michigan game was canceled in the third quarter because of lighting. After getting off to a promising start, Western Michigan turned the ball over three times, two of which were returned by the Michigan defense for touchdowns.
At the time of the cancelation, Michigan led 34-10, but sportsbooks canceled wagers after the severe weather stopped the game, resulting in a push.
Iowa vs. Iowa State (9/10 – 12:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa hammered Tennessee Tech of the FCS, 34-7, as junior quarterback James Vandenberg threw for 219 yards and two touchdowns in his first start replacing Ricky Stanzi, who is now with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Despite turning the ball over four times, Iowa State squeaked out a one-point victory over FCS Northern Iowa when quarterback Steele Jantz punched in a one-yard touchdown run with 40 seconds remaining. Jantz struggled with his arm, completing only 45% of his passes and throwing three interceptions, but remained effective on the ground, rushing for 80 yards and two touchdowns.
Iowa opened as a 7-point favorite at Pinnacle and, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, is currently garnering 85% of spread wagers.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
Despite the one-sided betting, the has shrunk to -6, indicating sharp money has fallen on Iowa State.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
In order to offset risk, sportsbooks will increase the line when a favorite is getting heavily bet as a way to encourage bets on the underdog and even up their books.
Even though the betting percentages (white line) in this game have stayed consistently one-sided throughout the week, the betting line has moved in the opposite direction of those percentages twice, triggering the two Smart Money Plays ($).
A quick scan of our Live Odds Page shows the sports marketplace offering this game between 6 and 7, so we’ll Bet Against the Public, follow the Smart Money and Steam and take Iowa State, plus the full 7.
Have Questions Regarding This Week’s Marketwatch Selection?
Sports Insights will be hosting a Live Sports Betting Chat Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET. This is your chance to ask our experts directly about this weekend’s games and our portfolio of sports investing tools.
The chat is FREE to everyone (even if you’re not currently a Sports Insights member) and an opportunity to get a first look at our NFL Marketwatch Week 1 Pick.
Please visit our Live Sports Betting Chat page, signup for an email reminder and join us at 11:30 a.m. ET Saturday for this weekend’s chat.
Game to Watch (0-0)
Iowa State +7
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights