NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 14 2011

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 8-4-1 (66.7%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 13

Northwestern, getting 6.5 points, lost to Michigan State last week, 31-17. The Wildcats did not cover the spread, dropping Marketwatch to 8-4 on the season.

Northern Illinois vs. Ohio (12/2 – 7:00 p.m. ET)

With the college football regular season winding down, this week’s article will be the final 2011 Edition of College Football Marketwatch. It’s been a great season for College Football Marketwatch, which has won 66.7% of its games.

All Marketwatch picks for the rest of the season (including Bowl Season) will be included in our Best Bets and Square Plays, which are available to Premium Pro members.

If you’re a new member, we invite you to try our Premium Pro membership Free for 7 days.

Northern Illinois and Toledo both finished the season with a 7-1 conference record, but the Huskies’ 63-60 win over the Rockets last month awarded them the tiebreaker to advance to Friday’s MAC Championship game.

Ohio topped Miami (OH) last week, improving to 6-2 in the conference and to the top of the MAC East standings, earning the Bobcats their shot at the MAC Championship.

Northern Illinois opened as a 4-point favorite at Pinnacle and is currently garnering 68% of spread bets.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

The College Football Betting Trends suggest public money has come down on Northern Illinois, however, the line has dropped to -3 at Pinnacle, Olympic and CRIS, indicating sharp money has taken Ohio.

Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems concur, triggering three positive Smart Money Plays, including one at (+16.88 units), and a Steam Move at East Street (+17.65 units) on the Bobcats.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends, betting system plays and breaking weather alerts have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

In our final edition of the season, we’ll bet against the public, follow the Smart Money and take Ohio plus the points.

Game to Watch (8-4-1)
Ohio +3.5

Enjoy the games!