NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 13 2011

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 8-3-1 (72.7%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 12

In last week’s game, Illinois jumped out to a promising 17-7 halftime lead against Wisconsin. However, turnovers eventually did the Illini in, helping the Badgers score three unanswered second-half touchdowns in the 28-17 Wisconsin win.

Even with the collapse, Illinois hung on to lose by 11 points, covering the 15-point spread and improving Marketwatch’s record to 8-3 this season.

Michigan State vs. Northwestern (11/26 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

Michigan State pounded Big Ten doormat Indiana last week, 55-3. The win pushed the Spartans’ conference record to 6-1 and clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship game.

With its 28-13 victory over Minnesota, Northwestern improved to 6-5 on the season, propelling the Wildcats to bowl eligibility for the fourth straight season.

Michigan State opened as a 7-point favorite at CRIS and, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, is currently receiving 72% of spread bets.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

With the majority of public bets taking Michigan State, the line has dropped to -6 at most sportsbooks. This reverse-line movement is a clear indicator that sharp money is taking Northwestern.

Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems agree, triggering Smart Money Plays at both (+16.37 units) and Carib (+12.86 units) on the Wildcats.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends, betting system plays and breaking weather alerts have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

This Thanksgiving weekend, we’ll once again fade a public favorite, follow the sharp money and grab Northwestern plus the points.

Game to Watch (8-3-1)
Northwestern +6.5 (Carib)

Enjoy the games!