NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 11 2011

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 6-3-1 (66.7%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 10

Oregon State, getting 21.5 points, kept it close last week against Stanford, trailing by only four points late in the third quarter. However, Stanford responded with three unanswered touchdowns en route to a 38-13 win, covering the spread and handing Marketwatch our third loss of the season.

South Florida vs. Syracuse (11/11 – 8:00 p.m. ET)

Despite outgaining Rutgers 381-228 in total yards last week, a South Florida interception on the first possession in overtime allowed the Scarlet Knights to kick a 37-yard field goal to top the Bulls, 20-17.

Syracuse wasn’t able to capitalize on five Connecticut turnovers in its most recent game, falling to the Huskies, 28-21. The Orange had no answer for running back Lyle McCombs, who rushed for 152 yards on 24 carries.

South Florida opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and is currently garnering 32% of spread bets.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

According to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, the public money is solidly on Syracuse, pushing the line down to -3.5.

Our College Football Betting Systems have triggered two Smart Money Plays on South Florida, one each at (+16.33 units) and Canbet (+11.31 units), indicating sharp money has come down on South Florida.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Marketwatch rarely takes favorites, however, we look for games where fading one-sided public action offers extra value, especially when our betting systems concur.

In our first Friday edition of the season, we’re taking South Florida to cover the 3.5-point spread.

Game to Watch (6-3-1)
South Florida -3.5

Enjoy the games!