NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 10 2011

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 6-2-1 (75.0%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 9

For the second straight week, Marketwatch picked off an undefeated team as Georgia Tech, getting four points, beat Clemson, 31-17. The win was the fifth in a row for Marketwatch, improving our record to 6-2 on the season.

Stanford vs. Oregon State (11/5 – 3:30 p.m. ET)

Stanford survived a 56-48, triple-overtime thriller against USC last week, improving to 8-0 on the season and moving one-step closer to a possible shot at the National Championship. As expected, Andrew Luck led the way for the Cardinal, throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns.

Oregon State lost to Utah, 27-8, last week, handing the Utes their first Pac-12 win. Despite being outgained by only 24 yards, the Beavers couldn’t overcome four turnovers, resulting in their sixth loss of the season.

Stanford opened as a 20.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, has received 84% of all spread bets.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

Even with the one-sided betting, the line has remained relatively stable throughout the week and currently sits at -20.5 at CRIS, Pinnacle and 5Dimes. This lack of line movement, despite the lopsided spread betting trends, indicates sharp money has come down on Oregon State.

Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems agree, triggering three positive Smart Money Plays on the Beavers, including one at Sportsbook.com (+14.09 units), our top-ranked sportsbook for any college football betting system so far this season.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

This game is being offered between 20.5 and 21 at most sportsbooks, with Bodog currently at 21.5. As a result, we’ll follow the sharp money, bet against a huge public favorite and grab Oregon State at +21.5.

Game to Watch (6-2-1)
Oregon State +21.5 (Bodog)

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