by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 4
Recapping Week 3
Marketwatch took a pounding last week, losing all three of our Games to Watch. Iowa State got the day off to a disappointing start with a 7-point loss to Kansas State. The Cyclones, getting 4 points, gave up a field goal with 1:38 remaining in the game, moving the game from a push to a loss.
In our second game, Jake Locker looked more like Jake Delhomme than the projected number one pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Locker completed a grand total of six passes, two of which went to the Nebraska defense, in the 56-21 loss to the Cornhuskers.
LSU made it a clean sweep against Marketwatch, using four first-half field goals from kicker Josh Jasper as a springboard to a 29-7 victory over Mississippi State.
Overall Record = 3-6 (33.3%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 4 – Games to Watch
Army vs. Duke (9/25 – 3 p.m. ET)
Army imposed its will on North Texas in last week’s game, grinding out 292 rushing yards, while committing only two penalties and zero turnovers in their 24-0 victory.
Conversely, Duke was completely overmatched in their game against Alabama, surrendering 626 total yards in a 49-point loss to the defending National Champions.
Duke opened as a 7.5-point favorite at CRIS and, despite receiving 62% of spread bets, the line has shrunk to -6. This reverse-line movement suggests there is sharp money coming down on Army, so we’ll take Army and their triple-option attack, getting 6.5 points.
UCLA vs. Texas (9/25 – 3:30 p.m. ET)
Last week, UCLA got a huge game from running back Jonathan Franklin, who lead the Bruins to their first victory of the season. Franklin rushed for 158 yards and scored three touchdowns in the convincing 31-13 win over Houston.
Texas shook off four turnovers and outscored Texas Tech 10-0 in the second half in a hard-fought, 24-14 win over their in-state rival.
Texas opened as a 17-point favorite at Olympic and are massive public favorites. The Longhorns are currently receiving 84% of spread wagers, but sharp money has come down on UCLA, shrinking the line to -16. Two positive Smart Money Plays have been triggered on UCLA, as well as a Steam Move at 5Dimes (+6.9 units). At the time of publication, most sportsbooks are offering the Bruins at +16, yet one has moved to +16.5. As always, shop for the best line and grab UCLA at the highest possible number.
UCLA +16.5 (Bodog)
South Carolina vs. Auburn (9/25 – 7:30 p.m. ET)
One week after an impressive win against Georgia, South Carolina looked a bit flat against Furman, allowing the Paladins to gain 325 total yards. Still, South Carolina proved too strong for overmatched Furman, pulling away for a 38-19 win.
Auburn comes into this week’s game riding the high from an overtime victory against rival Clemson. Auburn, down 17-3 at halftime, outscored Clemson 21-0 in the third quarter en route to the 3-point win.
Auburn opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and, according to Sports Insights’ Betting Trends data, is receiving only 36% of spread bets and 19% of moneyline wagers. A Steam Move at Canbet (+1.4 units) was triggered on Auburn earlier this week, moving the line to -3 across the sports marketplace. In our third and final game of the week, we’ll fade a huge public favorite and give the three.
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So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (3-6)
UCLA +16.5 (Bodog)
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights