NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 12 2010

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 12

Recapping Week 11

In last week’s game, Texas had no answer for Oklahoma State’s passing game, giving up 409 yards to quarterback Brandon Weeden. The Cowboys scored 30 answered points at one point in the game, putting away the Longhorns, and Marketwatch.

Overall Record = 12-11 (52.2%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 12 – Game to Watch

Wisconsin vs. Michigan (11/20 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

Wisconsin lit up the scoreboard last week, scoring 83 points against Indiana for the school’s most prolific offensive performance in 95 years. Even though running back John Clay did not play due to a sprained right knee, the Badgers still rushed for 338 yards and six touchdowns in the 63-point victory.

Michigan overcame five turnovers in their last game, a 27-16 win over Purdue. Luckily for the Wolverines, their defense forced five turnovers of their own and held the Boilermakers’ offense to just 256 total yards.

Wisconsin opened as a 6-point favorite at Pinnacle and, after scoring 11 touchdowns last week, is currently receiving 84% of spread bets and 85% of moneyline wagers. The line, however, has dropped to -4 at many of the market-setting sportsbooks tracked by Sports Insights. This reverse-line movement has triggered four positive Smart Money Plays and one positive Steam Move on Michigan, indicating sharp money is coming down on the home underdog.

According to our Betting Trends data, this is the second-most heavily bet NCAA football game, in terms of the number of bets, of the weekend. Contrarian betting is a key factor when selecting our NCAA Football Square Plays, which are 38-16 (+19.13 units) this season. The lopsided betting percentages and heavy action make this game a prime Square Playcandidate, convincing us to follow the Smart Money, bet against the public and grab Michigan and the points.

Michigan +4.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Game to Watch for NCAA Football Week 12.

Game to Watch (12-11)
Michigan +4.5

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights