NBA Marketwatch Edition 5 2011-12

Edition 5 Betting Trends

Welcome to the fifth edition of the 2011-2012 NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 2-2

Recapping Last Week

In the last edition of NBA Marketwatch, we examined the matchup between the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder. Oklahoma City jumped out to a 29-12 lead after the first quarter and extended that margin to 27 at halftime.

Although the Pistons had four players score in double figures, they were unable to slow down OKC’s high-scoring trio of Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Kevin Durant — each of whom scored over 20 points.

Ultimately, the Pistons anemic shooting (34.1% from the field) kept them from keeping it close and the Thunder easily covered the 13.5-point spread in a 99-79 victory. The loss was our second of the season and dropped marketwatch to a 2-2 record.

Click here to view last week’s article

New Orleans Hornets vs. Miami Heat (1/30 – 7:30 PM ET)

In this week’s edition of marketwatch we are going to examine the game between the New Orleans Hornets (4-16) and Miami Heat (15-5). While the Hornets horrendous record has them sitting in last place in the Western Conference, Miami’s win over Chicago yesterday pulled them within one game of the first-place Bulls.

According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Miami opened as a 13-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and is currently receiving 82% of all spread bets. Despite this lopsided betting percentage, the line has dropped a full point to -12. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is taking New Orleans.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:

Teams Market Avg % Sportsbook BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA
HORNETS

HEAT

18%

82%

12%

88%

27%

73%

14%

86%

8%

92%

41%

59%

16%

84%

A smart money move was triggered on the Hornets +12 at BetUS (11-6 +4.01 units) further indicating that sharp money likes New Orleans this evening. In addition, our 2011-12 Betting Against the Public article revealed that since 2003, NBA visitors receiving less than 25% of spread wagers have a winning percentage of 54.8%.

Most of the public books are offering this game at 12 points, so we’ll fade the public, follow the sharp money and shop for the best line and take the road dog Hornets.


Game to Watch (2-2)

New Orleans +12 (Multiple Books)

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