Welcome to the fourth edition of the 2011-2012 NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 2-1
Recapping Last Week
In the last edition of NBA Marketwatch, we examined the matchup between the Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks.
Greg Monroe paced the way for Detroit with 32 points and 16 rebounds, however the Bucks well-rounded offense had five players record double-figure point totals led by Brandon Jennings with 27. Milwaukee shot the lights out from downtown and barely covered the 8.5 points spread with a final score of 102-93.
The loss was our first of the season and dropped marketwatch to a 2-1 record.
Detroit Pistons vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (1/23 – 8:00 PM ET)
In this week’s edition of marketwatch we are going to examine the game between the Detroit Pistons (4-13) and Oklahoma City Thunder (13-3). While the Pistons struggles have them in last place in the Central Division, the Thunder’s scorching start has them with the Western Conference’s top record.
According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Oklahoma City opened as an 13.5-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and is currently receiving 78% of all spread bets. Despite this lopsided betting percentage, the line has remained at 13.5.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:
|Teams||Market Avg %||Sportsbook||BetUS||Carib||WagerWeb||5Dimes||SIA|
While no profitable betting systems have been triggered on this game, it does fit a few historically profitable trends. Our 2011-12 Betting Against the Public article revealed that since 2003, NBA visitors receiving less than 25% of spread wagers have a winning percentage of 54.8%.
We have also found that, since February of 2010, road teams receiving less than 35% of public bets and getting 10 or more points have gone 43-20 (68.25%) with 20.89 units earned.
Most of the public books are offering this game at 13.5 points, so we’ll fade the public, shop for the best line and take the road dog Pistons.
Game to Watch (2-1)
Detroit +13.5 (Multiple Books)
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