NBA Marketwatch – Edition 12 2011-12

Edition 12 Betting Trends
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 4-7

Recapping Last Week

Last week’s NBA Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Cleveland Cavaliers, fell on the road to the heavily favored Philadelphia 76ers by a final score of 103-85.

Led by Jodie Meeks (career-high 31 points), the 76ers shot 48.9% from the floor and 52.6% from beyond the arc to sink the visiting Cavs.

Click here to view last week’s article

Despite getting nine points, Cleveland was unable to cover the spread, dropping NBA Marketwatch to 4-7 on the season.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics

In this week’s edition of NBA Marketwatch, we examine the Eastern Conference showdown between the Atlanta Hawks (34-23, 15-15 away) and the Boston Celtics (33-24, 20-9 home), which tips off at 8:00 PM ET at the TD Garden.

After being mired by mediocrity for much of the regular season, the Celtics have hit their stride of late to post an impressive 18-7 record since the All-Star break.

However, despite their spirited resurgence, the old-legged Celts will be playing their fourth game in five nights and are coming off a physically taxing and emotionally draining 115-107 victory over the rival Heat last night in Miami.

As a result, Boston could be primed for a let down.

In turn, the Hawks, led by the dynamic duo of Joe Johnson (18.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.9 APG) and Josh Smith (18.9, 9.7, 3.9), enter this potential playoff preview having won three in a row and eight of their last eleven.

According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Boston opened as a 4.5 point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and is currently receiving 80% of all spread bets.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:

Teams Market Avg % Sportsbook BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA
HAWKS
CELTICS
20%
80%
11%
89%
23%
77%
17%
83%
28%
72%
39%
61%
15%
85%

 

Despite the hugely lopsided betting and continued hammering of home favorite Boston, the line has actually dropped to Boston -3.0 (Cris).

This Reverse Line Movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on road dog Atlanta.

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a pair of notable System Plays on the Hawks, including a Smart Money move on Altanta +3 by Heritage (95-88, 51%, +1.84 units) as well as a Steam Move on Atlanta +3 by Cris (253-222, 53%, +8.23 units).

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the Spread Betting Trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currently, most all books are showing this game at 3.0 points, however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before tip-off.

We are fading the betting public and going with the underdog Hawks to pick up a big road cover and get NBA Marketwatch back on the winning path.

Games to Watch (4-7)

Atlanta +3.0 (CRIS)

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