Welcome to the first edition of the 2011-2012 NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (12/26 – 8:00 p.m. ET)
In our first marketwatch of the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) will travel to Minnesota (0-0) to take on the new-look T’Wolves.
Yesterday, the Thunder defeated the Magic 97-89 behind a phenomenal performance from Kevin Durant (30 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists). While OKC will be playing their second games in as many days, Minnesota will be making their season debut while introducing a number of new players. Derrick Williams, the number two pick in this year’s draft, and Ricky Rubio, the fifth pick in 2009, will both be making their NBA debuts tonight. Joining them in their inaugural T’Wolves appearance will be former Mavericks guard Jose Juan Barea who was signed as a free agent this off-season.
According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Oklahoma City opened as a 6-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and have received 84% of spread wagers. Despite this lop-sided betting percentage, the line has dropped to -5.5. This reverse-line movement is a clear indicator that sharp money is taking Minnesota.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
|Teams||Market Avg %||Sprtsbk.com||BetUS||Carib||WagerWeb||5Dimes||SIA|
Despite this one-sided betting, three system plays have been triggered on Minnesota including this season’s top steam move from 5dimes (28-14, +11.48 units).
Multiple public books are offering this game at 6 points, so we’ll follow the sharp money, shop for the best line and take the home underdog.
Game to Watch (0-0)
Minnesota +6 (SIA)
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