Welcome to the fifth edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 1-3
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Edition 4
Despite a double-double from Arsalan Kazemi (13 points, 11 boards), Rice, who we took plus four points, fell to visiting Temple 77-70 at Tudor Fieldhouse. Senior guard Juan Fernandez (23 points) played the hero, eclipsing the 1,000-point threshold for his Temple career to lead the heavily favored Owls to the victory.
With the defeat, NCAAB Marketwatch drops to 1-3 on the young season.
Purdue vs. Iowa (12/28 – 9:30 p.m. ET)
In this week’s edition of marketwatch, we will examine the Big Ten showdown between the Purdue Boilermakers (10-3, 0-1 away) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5, 8-2 home).
Led by senior guard Matt Gatens (14.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.2 apg) and sophomore wingman Roy Devyn Marble (10.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg), the Hawkeyes are a balanced offensive group, with seven different players averaging at least seven points per game.
Conversely, the Boilermakers lean heavily on senior captain Robbie Hummel (17.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), with Ryne Smith (11.0 ppg) and Lewis Jackson (10.8 ppg) playing the sidekick role.
Purdue opened as a 4-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and, according to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, is currently receiving 77% of all spread bets. Despite this one-sided betting percentage, the line has remained static, which indicates that sharp money is taking Iowa.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
|Teams||Market Avg %||Sprtsbk.com||BetUS||Carib||WagerWeb||5Dimes||SIA|
More closely, Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Systems has triggered a Smart Money play on Iowa +3.5 by Heritage (26-19, 57%, +5.22 units), which is currently the number one performing Smart Money sportsbook for College Basketball.
Further bolstering the value of Iowa is the lop-sided spread betting percentage. In our article College Basketball and Betting Against the Public, we reveal that since 2008 teams receiving less than 25% of spread wagers have a winning percentage of 53.2%.
The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
The market-setting sportsbooks have this game at 4.0, however be sure to shop around for the best line prior to tip-off as this number could change.
Once again we will fade a public favorite, follow the sharp money and take Iowa plus the points.
Game to Watch (1-3)
Iowa +4 (Cris)
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