Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 7-5-1 (58.3%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Week 13
In last week’s NCAAB Marketwatch, Illinois-Chicago stormed back after being down 28 only 15 minutes into the game before falling 68-55 at Wisconsin-Milwaukee. With a spread of 13, the result was a push and takes our record to 7-5-1 on the year.
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (7:00 pm ET)
This week’s Marketwatch hones in on the Big 12 Conference Tournament, with Oklahoma State (15-17, 7-11 Big 12) taking on 5th ranked Missouri (27-4, 14-4 Big 12) in Kansas City, Missouri. This will be the final Big 12 tournament for the Missouri Tigers as they’ll make the move to the SEC next season, and they’ll be looking to go out on top. However, Oklahoma State has already knocked off Missouri this season, a 79-72 home victory back in late January, and will be looking to spoil the Tigers run for a 1-seed in the NCAA tourney.
Oklahoma State lost the last two games of the regular season by double-digit margins but bounced back with a 16-point win over Texas Tech in the first round of the Big 12 tourney yesterday. The Cowboys are led by senior guard Keiton Page, who is averaging nearly 17 points a game and has shot over 50% in each of the last 3 games. Unfortunately freshman Le’Bryan Nash, the team’s second-leading scorer, is out for the remainder of the season with a hand injury, but the coaching staff has praised the team’s effort without him.
According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Oklahoma State opened as a 11.5-point underdog at CRIS and is currently receiving just 14% of all spread bets. Though the public is pounding the nationally ranked Missouri Tigers, the spread has remained at 11.5 at most sportsbooks, and has jumped just a half-point at books such as Pinnacle and Sportsbook.com.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
As a significant public underdog who is getting double-digit points, Oklahoma State fits the historically profitable criteria noted in our College Basketball and Betting Against the Public article. No Steam Moves or Smart Money moves have been triggered on either side of this contest and neither team is dealing with any new injuries.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle. Though the high betting percentage on Missouri has remained constant, the spread just moved a half-point in the last hour.
We’re taking the double-digit points and going with Oklahoma State to cover as we look to improve to 8-5-1 on the season.
Game to Watch (7-5-1)
Oklahoma State +12
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