College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 13 2011-12

Edition 13 Betting Trends
Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 7-5 (58.3%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 12

Last week’s Marketwatch selection, USC, fell on the road to heavily-favored Arizona by a final score of 70-54. Led by guards Kyle Fogg (16 pts, 12 boards) and Josiah Turner (15 pts, 6 dimes), ‘Zona shot 45% from the floor and 38% from behind the arc to put away the underdog Trojans.

Despite getting 13 points, USC was unable to cover the spread, dropping Marketwatch to 7-5 on the season.

Illinois-Chicago vs. Wisconsin Milwaukee

In this week’s edition of Marketwatch, we focus on the Horizon League Championship first-round matchup between Illinois-Chicago (8-21, 3-15 Horizon) and Wisconsin Milwaukee (19-12, 11-7 Horizon).

Despite owning the 2nd worst record in the conference, Illinois-Chicago is a much more competitive team than their record indicates.

Led by the backcourt duo of Gary Talton (11.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.3 APG) and Daniel Barnes (10.6, 3.1, 1.6), 14 of Illinois-Chicago’s 21 losses have been by 11 points or fewer.

According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Wisconsin Milwaukee opened as a 13.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving 73% of all spread bets.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

Teams Market % BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

Despite the one-sided betting, the line has decreased from -13.5 to -13, indicating sharp money is coming down on Illinois-Chicago.

As a significant public underdog who is getting double-digit points, Illinois-Chicago fits the historically profitable criteria noted in our College Basketball and Betting Against the Public article.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

In this week’s edition of Marketwatch, we’re taking Illinois-Chicago and the points as we look to improve to 8-5 on the season.

Game to Watch (7-5)
Illinois Chicago +13

Enjoy the games!