Guest Article by BettingCharts.com
The All-Star Game has come and gone — and the American League has won yet again! That makes ten wins in a row for the AL (excluding 2002’s ridiculous tie). The “Smart Money” was on the NL to some degree — and there does seem to be some value in betting against this “trend” (or just betting against this streak from continuing forever!). However, that’s another story — and for next year. Now, let’s take a look at some of the highlights and lowlights of the 2007 baseball season to date. We’ll look at the play of various teams and players — as well as how this season has progressed on the “sports investing” front.
Highlights of the 2007 Baseball Season
- The Yankees, even with all of their money and stars, have hovered around the .500 mark. It shows how important consistent pitching and clubhouse personalities can be to a team. The Yankees’ Runs Scored vs. Runs Against is still amongst the best in baseball, however, so they could make a run.
- San Diego’s pitching has been amazing. Led by J. Peavy (9-3 W-L, 2.09 ERA) and C. Young (10-3, 2.00), the Padres have a team ERA of 3.09.
- Earlier in the season, it looked like the Red Sox and Mets were headed for a rematch of their 1986 World Series. Both have cooled down a bit (in particular, the Mets) — but they still seem “the team to beat” in their respective leagues. No surprise here.
- Detroit might also make some noise in the playoffs. Their bats are certainly making a ton of noise during the regular season, with three of their big bats in the 60-70 RBI range at the All-Star Break! The Tigers also have some stud pitchers in Verlander and Bonderman.
- A-Rod has cooled off just a bit recently, but check out these stats… At mid-season, A-Rod has 86 RBIs, 30 HRs, 79 runs scored and is batting .317.
- As we enter the second half of the season, Barry Bonds will make some news as he nears and breaks Hank Aaron’s all-time record of 755 HRs. He currently has 751 HRs. Sadly, more newsprint will be spent on who is attending when the record is broken.
- It will also be interesting to follow the performance of New York’s great-but-old pitchers: Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez (Pedro is due back in August).
And now, on to the “important stuff.” Overall, it’s been a decent year in baseball for sports investors. At BettingCharts.com, we have earned just under +25 units for our subscribers. On Sides, we have won about 48% of our picks, mostly on underdogs. BettingCharts is looking to make this MLB season another profitable season for our members (that would make 6 out of 7 sport-seasons profitable). In Totals, BettingCharts has been successful in every sports season since inception. Below are some other mid-season tidbits for sports investors:
- Smart Money Methods continue to perform well. SportsInsights’ Premium Pro Members can follow SI’s Smart Money feature, which is up +21 units (using TradeSports.com’s line movement).
- So far this year, Betting Against the Public has been flat in MLB. SportsInsights’ Square Plays reflect this fact. Squares were positive near the All-Star Break, but a slump just before the break brought the Squares back down to breakeven.
- Some of our research has shown that Home Underdogs in baseball might have an extra edge. Based on SportsInsights’ database, Home Teams with 20% or less of the Betting Percentage yielded more than +6 units during the first half of the season.
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies” recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself.