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The Public Has Bet the Over in 87% of NBA Playoff Games. Are They Right?

The Celtics’ shocking 94-90 victory over the Heat last night not only completely shifted momentum, but also marked the fourth consecutive time the over has hit this series. That has dropped Boston’s postseason record for unders to 45-43 (51.1%, -1.01 units) during the Big Three Era.

This recent scoring binge has also been detrimental to betting the Heat’s unders, which dropped into the red for the first time with a 37-36 record (-.99 units) since 2006 and 15-19 (-4.74 units) since LeBron took his talents to South Beach.

Are Home Teams Undervalued in the Playoffs?

With another thrilling victory for the Celtics last night, the series has been knotted at two games a piece as the action moves back to Miami. The win not only shifts the momentum of the series, but continues a prevalent playoff trend — and no, it’s not just unpredictable officiating.

Boston’s victory means that the home team has won every game of the series and the same thing can be said in the Western Conference showdown between the Thunder and Spurs. But does this apparent home team bias translate to sports bettors?

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