NHL Marketwatch Edition 10 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 7-2, +7.57 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the New Jersey Devils, rallied from a two-goal deficit late in the game to pick up a huge 3-2 shootout victory over the heavily favored Florida Panthers. Perennial stars Ilya Kovalchuk and Patrik Elias both scored in the shootout while Martin Brodeur made 24 saves in net to lift the underdog Devils to the big come-from-behind road win.

With the victory, NHL Marketwatch notches its fifth consecutive victory to improve to 7-2 (+7.57 units) on the season.

Phoenix Coyotes +109 over Florida Panthers

With the NHL season now in full swing, the Phoenix Coyotes (16-13-3, 35 points) travel to the Bank Atlantic Center to face the Florida Panthers (18-9-6, 42 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET.

After starting off the year an impressive 13-7-3, the desert dogs have hit the skids of late, losing six of their last nine games in the month of December.

However, despite their recent tailspin, Phoenix remains one of the most balanced teams in the league and find themselves just four points out of first place in the Pacific Division.

Offensively, the Coyotes are paced by dynamic wingers Ray Whitney (10-18-28), Radim Vrbata (15-12-27) and captain Shane Doan (8-13-21), while all-world defenseman Keith Yandle (4-16-20) remains a driving force along the blue line.

Meanwhile, led by goaltender Mike Smith (14-10-3, 2.55 GAA, .914 SV%), Phoenix continues to be one of the stingiest defensive teams in the league, averaging just 2.6 goals against (which is good for 11th best in the NHL).

A couple other notable tidbits to keep in mind include the fact that the Coyotes have been a much better road team this season (9-6-1) than they are at home (7-7-2). Also, because home favorite Florida enters the game on such a hot streak (5-1-2 over their past 8 games) and Phoenix has lost four out of their last five, we are buying low on the Coyotes and selling high on the Panthers.

In addition, Florida’s last 12 home games have all been decided by one goal, which makes for a highly competitive game tonight. Lastly, the Panthers will be without star winger Sean Bergenheim (lower body injury), who has been one of the Panthers’ best playmaking forwards this season.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Phoenix opened at +125 (Pinnacle) and is currently receiving just 25% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA
PHOENIX
FLORIDA
25%
75%
26%
74%
28%
72%
18%
82%
N/A
N/A
37%
63%
26%
74%

Despite the hugely lopsided betting and continued hammering of home favorite Florida, the moneyline has actually dropped to +109 (Pinnacle), which indicates that sharp money has been coming in on the underdog Coyotes.

As a result of the betting line moving in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, which we refer to as Reverse Line Movement, we have received a pair of notable Smart Money plays on Phoenix +110 by CRIS [Cigar] (21-21, 50%, +4.31 units) and Phoenix +115 by Cata/VegasVic (10-8, 55%, +5.60 units), which currently rank second and fourth overall, respectively, in terms of the most profitable NHL Betting Systems this year.

[In order to provide our members with the most up-to-date and late-breaking Sports Betting System plays, All-Pro Combo users can be automatically alerted to all Smart Money and Steam Move plays, as well as our office released Square Plays and Best Bets, by accessing the settings tab located on our homepage and then clicking "Betting Systems" (located under Alerts). From there members can customize their alerts per sport and be notified of all moves via a pop-up on their computer screen, sound notification, email or text message]

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, Pinnacle has the most profitable moneyline for the Coyotes (+109), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the heavily favored Panthers and going with the underdog Coyotes to pick up a big road victory and keep NHL Marketwatch’s impressive winning streak intact.
Games to Watch (7-2, +7.57 units)
Phoenix Coyotes +109 (Pinnacle)

Enjoy the games!