NFL Marketwatch Week 17 2005-06

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 17
12/30/2005  1:25 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasisabout which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 17

NFL WEEK 16 Recap
NFL Week 16 continued the downward spiral of the once mighty Indy Colts but brought prosperity to the sports betting industry. Most sportsbooks reported retaining between 2-4% of their handle. The sportsbooks had 3-4 in games with large money decisions, but as always, the ability to break up teasers/parlays is what “makes or breaks” any weekend.
Buffalo and Dallas winning outright – and Tampa Bay failing to cover – all but insured a profitable Saturday. Steve Stone, line manager at Oasis, had this to say about NFL Week 16, “Saturday was a solid day for us, but we gave a lot back on Monday Night. We wrote primarily New England tickets from the minute we posted the line, right up until kick off. I’d say well over 85% of the bets taken on the Monday Night game had New England.”

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, “the Public” posted a winning 4-3 record.

SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis posted anther profitable weekend, going 2-1. For the season, that makes SportsInsights.com Games to Watch 31-24 = 56.4%.
View last week’s column
*source: SportsInsights.com

NFL WEEK 17 Preview
This time of year is tough for the oddsmakers, as teams that can’t improve their playoff position look to sit starters. In addition, there are some horrible and meaningless match ups. Scott Kaminsky, line manager at Bowmans, put it best, “There really isn’t one good match up this weekend.” The lineboard is full of bad teams playing other horrible teams, and teams that can’t improve their playoff positions playing horrendous teams. It’s a good weekend to spend some time with family and get chores done in anticipation of an exciting playoff run.

We anticipate the New York Giants, Buffalo, Indy, and New England to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from six online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 17 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
View Live Stats – http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

The Chicago Bears have already clinched a first round bye, and have nothing to gain from this game. The Minnesota Vikings are out of the playoff race, but are looking to end the year on a positive note. I circled this game for one simple reason: Sharp Money. Scott Kaminsky, line manager at Bowmans reported taking Sharp Money on Minnesota -3, and -3.5. Oasis and 5Dimes confirmed similar Sharp Money.

Minnesota -4

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers
View Live Stats – http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

This game opened at Pittsburgh -15, quickly got bet up to -17, and then witnessed a flood of Sharp Money buy back which brought the line back to reality, +14.

Simon Noble, line manager at PinnacleSports.com, reported the following,
“Pittsburgh has three ways to advance to the playoffs. The most straightforward is to simply win at home. San Diego hosts Denver a full day before this game and a San Diego win would also advance Pittsburgh due to tiebreakers. If both of these fail to occur, a Kansas City loss at home against Cincinnati would suffice.

Therefore pay very close attention to the San Diego game. If they pull off the upset, Sunday’s game becomes almost meaningless for Pittsburgh. While they are still at home and will play for their crowd, expect the line to plummet.

In our highest volume NFL game of the week, we opened the Steelers at -15. The public favored Pittsburgh, while the sharps favored Detroit. Our best players always get the best number and this game was no exception, with some of them taking Detroit +17. Despite the public favoring Pittsburgh, the market has shifted down to Detroit +13.5.“

As always I’m following the Sharp Money and taking Detroit +14.5

Detroit Lions +14.5

New York Giants vs Oakland Raiders
View Live Stats – http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

The New York Giants are only 2-4 away from Giants Stadium and squandered a chance to clinch the division title last week in Washington. They’ll limp into the playoffs regardless if they win or lose. I see a lot of value in betting Oakland at +9.5 as a Home Underdog. Steve Stone, line manager at Oasis, reported taking Sharp hits at +9. I anticipate Public money to continue pouring in on the New York Giants. I’ll be looking for a +10 before kickoff.

Oakland +9.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 17.

Games to Watch (31-24)
Minnesota -4
Detroit Lions +14.5
Oakland Raiders +9.5

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with a special Playoff Edition of the Sports Marketplace.

Happy New Year!

Daniel Fabrizio
Founder
SportsInsights.com