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NBA Marketwatch Edition 3 2011-12

Welcome to the third edition of the 2011-2012 NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 2-0

Recapping Last Week

Last week’s NBA Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Washington Wizards, lost on the road to the Boston Celtics by the score of 100-92. The Wizards led by 1 entering the fourth quarter, but led by Ray Allen’s 27 points, the C’s were able to pull out the victory.

However, behind 28 points from Andray Blatche and a double-double (17 points, 14 rebounds) from JaVale McGee the Wizards were able to keep it close and managed to cover the 11-point spread.

Click here to view last week’s article

Detroit Pistons vs. Milwaukee Bucks (1/12 – 8:00 PM ET)

In this week’s edition of marketwatch we are going to examine the Central Division matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks (3-6) and Detroit Pistons (2-8). While the Pistons have lost five straight games, the Bucks are coming off an impressive 106-103 victory over the San Antonio Spurs.

According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Milwaukee opened as an 8.5-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and is currently receiving 76% of all spread bets.

However, despite this lopsided betting percentage, the line has dropped to -8. This Reverse Line Movement is a clear indicator that sharp money is taking Detroit.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:

Teams Market Avg % Sportsbook BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA
PISTONS
BUCKS		 24%
76%		 14%
86%		 35%
65%		 6%
94%		 28%
72%		 35%
65%		 27%
73%

Further strengthening this play, our top performing steam move was triggered on Detroit +8.5 at Olympic (22-10, 68%, +10.02 units).

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the Spread Betting Trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multiple public books are offering this game at 8.5 points, so we’ll follow the sharp money, shop for the best line and take the road dog Pistons in hopes of getting NBA Marketwatch back on the winning path.

Game to Watch (2-0)

Detroit +8.5 (Multiple Books)

Enjoy the games!