MLB Teams of Interest 4/17/09

MLB Teams of Interest

by Wesley Griffin, www.sportsinsights.com

Posted: 4/17/2009

Just like our NBA Teams of Interest article, this article is going to examine some teams around Major League Baseball, searching for value opportunities in the sports betting marketplace. We will not be giving picks; however, we believe these insights can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games. We welcome your feedback – contact us! Also, you can comment and subscribe to our blog. For previous articles, please visit our archive.

New York Yankees (5-5)

These are the giants of Major League Baseball, the titans of the feared AL East. They have titles, tradition and a bevy of talented, expensive players on their side; hopefully, though, they haven’t been receiving most of your bets over the first two weeks of the season, because they simply aren’t performing up to expectations.

At Sports Insights, we believe expectations are just as important to consider when betting as the actual teams involved. The public loves to bet on favorites to win, and it has tremendously high expectations of the Yankees year in and year out. Thus far, 2009 has been no different. The Yankees have consistently been road favorites and have now opened the new Yankee Stadium as more than 2 to 1 favorites in both home games.

Such high odds and expectations might not be a big deal if the Yankees were taking care of business and well on their way to pushing the 100-win mark like many bettors – and sportsbooks – projected. Instead, they are an even .500, loitering in the middle of the “expectation-ally inverted” AL East. CC Sabathia seems to be feeling the pressure of his gargantuan contract and offseason diet-denial, while the combined age of heart-of-the-order guys Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada would have qualified them for social security the last time the Yankees made the playoffs. New York is 7th in the American league in OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) and 10th in ERA, but the favorite lines are not budging.

The bottom line is this: all the money GM Brian Cashman threw at high-profile players this winter is not likely to make you money anytime soon. The sportsbooks and the public have not adjusted their expectations to reflect the impact of losing A-Rod and the difficulty of developing chemistry amongst a roster filled with superstars. Despite winning as many games as they’ve lost, the huge lines for New York make it difficult to profit. A bettor taking the Yankees in every game thus far would already be down over 2 units (average line in the five games won: -150), or down over $100 for a $50 bettor. The Yankees will probably win their fair share of games this season, but let’s continue to fade them until they prove they can handle America’s astronomical expectations.

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