The inside line from PinnacleSports.com
by Simon Noble
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at Pinnacle Sports look to give you an unprecedented insight into the point spread movement on key games each week plus offer you the inside line on a little gambling theory to help players of all levels crank up their skill level and hopefully their winnings as well!
Every player knows about the vigorish – the bookmaker’s cut for taking your bet. What all the professionals know, is what a huge impact it has on whether you have won or lost at the end of the season.
If a player wants to win $100, he risks $110 with a traditional bookie. That extra $10 is the bookmaker’s commission for taking the bet. This is known as -110 pricing and because of the vigorish, a player has to win close to 53% of his bets just to break even! If you are a good handicapper and win 54% of your bets, you would show a profit of $340 after making a hundred, $100 bets.
At Pinnacle Sports, we don’t charge the retail -110 price for placing bets. On NFL sides, we use -104 style pricing instead and this lower vigorish means a player would only need to win just 51% of his plays to break even.
Our hypothetical 54% handicapper does even better at Pinnacle Sports. He would be up $616 after 100 plays – nearly twice as much as if he had used a traditional bookmaker! It is the value of discounted vigorish that makes Pinnacle Sports the destination of choice for both seasoned professionals and sports betting novices alike.
By offering low vig lines that give players up to 60% better value than other sports books, Pinnacle Sports is in a unique position to let you know if it’s the public or pros that are causing the line movement on big games and how large the moves are. Remember it always happens first at PinnacleSports.com.
San Francisco (+13) at Philadelphia
The 49ers are terrible! Philadelphia was in the Superbowl! Such is the public sentiment, and the spread is as much a measure of that, as a predictor of who will actually win.
San Francisco is coming off an upset win against St. Louis, 28-25. Despite having more turnovers than the Rams, and giving up 451 offensive yards, the 49ers won by forcing St. Louis to settle for field goals on four occasions. After San Fran’s 2-win season last year, the sports bettors demand more before respecting this team. Still though, this is the first time I have seen a 1-0 team getting 13 points against an 0-1 team.
This game opened with the Eagles at -12.5 and the sharps pounded this early, until the number settled at +13/+13.5. At +13.5, many professionals were playing the 49ers, buying 2 half-pts to +14.5. The number has now finally settled at +13.
New England at Carolina O/U 43
This game opened at 45.5, and was quickly bet down by sharps through the key number 44, which hits 3% of the time. The total stabilized at over 43 -108, where we are seeing two-way action.
Last year, New England had the #2 defense in the league, allowing just 16.2 points per game. Despite the off-season losses of Ty Law and other defensive players, New England looked impressive against the Raiders.
The Panther’s defense was slightly above average last year, allowing only 21.2 points per game. Carolina is coming off a 23-20 loss to New Orleans, but the score understates how much offense there was in this game. Between those two teams, there were 646 yards of total offense, which is high relative to 43 total points scored.
The real test on the total might come down to how close the game is in the 4th quarter. If either team is up by exactly two possessions, scoring tends to go up as defenses allow short yardage plays in exchange for time off the clock.
Tennessee (+6) at Florida
Tennessee struggled against UAB two weeks ago, salvaging a 17-10 win but the Vols are coming off a bye week with two weeks to prepare for this match-up. In the UAB game, Tennessee tried two different QBs and will likely play both against Florida.
Although Florida has outscored its opponents 73-17, it has yet to play a team of Tennessee’s caliber. Florida coach Urban Meyer, now in his first year at Florida, had a lifetime record of 39-8 as a head coach before his 2-0 start this year.
The Gators opened as a 3.5-pt favorite, but early public money quickly drove this up to 6. The sharps are opposing the public bettors, taking Tennessee and the points. With sharps and public in opposition on the game, this spread will probably close in the +5.5 to +6.5 range, but we are unlikely to see +7.
Northwestern at Arizona State O/U 65.5
Arizona State’s offense had 563 yards on each of the last two outings, most recently against the legitimate defense of LSU. Northwestern has averaged 528 yards of offense in each of its first two games, including a 38-37 victory against Northern Illinois. Two explosive offenses and lackadaisical defenses suggest that this will be a high-scoring contest, but will it be enough to go over 65.5? While any bet could win or lose, college totals above 64 have gone under 56% of the time.
At Pinnacle Sports, the total opened at 64, where sharps quickly took a lead on the over. The public kept playing the over, elevating the total to 65.5 and now the sharps are mainly playing the under.
PinnacleSports.com is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 80 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.comhas earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao and the United Kingdom, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.