Sports Marketwatch – NHL Edition
11/25/2009 5:00 PM EST
by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports Marketwatch- NHL Edition will be published weekly on Wednesday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – NHL Edition
We got our first win of the season last week with a 3-2 win for the Phoenix Coyotes over the Minnesota Wild. They got off to a slow start in Minnesota with Radim Vrbata getting the first goal of the game during a Coyotes’ power play in the second period. Goals by the Wild’s Andrew Brunette and the Coyotes’ Jim Vandermeer brought the score to 2-1 half way through the third. The Wild evened up the score with 5 minutes left with a Anti Miettinen goal, only to be disappointed 20 seconds later when Coyote Scottie Upshall scored the game winner.
Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 NHL Games to Watch: 1-3, 25%, -1.66 units
Sports MarketWatch – NHL Games to Watch
Nashville Predators +110 over Colorado Avalanche
In tonight’s first game, the Nashville Predators (13-8-1) will travel to Denver to take on the Colorado Avalanche (14-7-3). The Avalanche will have a tough time defending their home turf, with the Predators coming in to the Pepsi Center with a six game win streak and winning 7 out of 9 in the month of November. The Avalanche have had a more difficult time in November after their hot start to the season. They have had trouble stringing wins together, while only winning 4 out of 10 in November.
The Avalanche opened at -127 at Matchbook, but has since dropped to -110 despite 72% of the public betting on the Avalanche in moneyline bets. Olympic (15-8-0, 6.20 units) has triggered a Steam Move on the Predators, and with the combination of reverse line movement and a solid move by a book getting positive units, we will go against the public and take the Predators to go into Denver and defeat the Avalanche in Colorado.
Nashville Predators +110 (Carib Sports)
Atlanta Thrashers +166 over Detroit Red Wings
For our second game of the night, we have the Atlanta Thrashers (10-7-3) visiting the Detroit Red Wings (11-7-4) at Joe Louis Arena. The injury plagued Red Wings will look for a bit of home-town-luck to ease their woes after dropping 3 of their past 4 games, and will have their hands full without the help of defenseman, Niklas Kronwall, who is expected to miss 2-3 weeks. Atlanta’s power play is currently fifth in the NHL, and they will try to take advantage of the Red Wings 27th place penalty kill. Atlanta is coming into Detroit with a three game losing streak and will look to their Russian star, Ilya Kovalchuk, to get the win and break the streak.
The Red Wings opened at -190 at CRIS and now sits at -170. With 77% of the public taking the Red Wings in moneyline bets. Our top performing Smart Money book, Matchbook (21-13-0, 17.34 units), has triggered a play on the Thrashers. When we see solid reverse line movement along with a Smart Money play from our top performing book we have a good opportunity to get our money in when it’s good, and we will take the Thrashers against the public.
Atlanta Thrashers +166 (BetFair)
Games to Watch (1-3, -1.66 units)
Nashville Predators +110
Atlanta Thrashers +166
It should be another exciting week in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Wednesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NHL Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com