NFL Marketwatch Week 8 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. The column takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting. is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles on comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

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Recap of Last Week’s “Game to Watch” (4-3 = 57.1%)

Last week’s NFL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Minnesota Vikings, jumped to a first half lead, and after giving up 20 unanswered points in the third quarter, scored 10 points of their own in the fourth quarter — to cover against the Green Bay Packers.  It’s interesting that one of the weaker teams can cover against the “consensus strongest” team in the NFL.  This speaks volumes about NFL parity and the power of the point spread.  This brings the NFL Marketwatch to 4-3 (57.1%) for the season.  Since its inception more than six years ago, Sports Insights’ popular NFL Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of about 57%.  

Sports Insights’ Square Plays and Best Bets have gotten off to a combined 21-18 record this season.  Last season, Sports Insights’ contrarian methods of Betting Against the Public, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and Marketwatch had a solid NFL season, producing a combined winning percentage of about 55% with NFL Squares at 57%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

View Last Week’s Column

Tracking Public Performance

The sportsbooks avoided a bloodbath with Jacksonville stunning Baltimore on Monday Night Football.  The betting public still had a good weekend last week, going 5-3 in lopsided-bet games, but Jacksonville’s stunner helped the books to recoup some losses on a busy Monday Night of betting activity.  This brings the public’s cumulative record to a solid 30-26 (53.6%) in lopsided-bet games this year.  Pittsburgh, New Orleans & Dallas made public bettors happy — but Green Bay and Baltimore failed to cover for the public.  Over the past six seasons, the public has been correct only about 48% of the time against the spread in “lopsided-bet” games, which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants

This game is currently seeing the heaviest betting action of the week.  Our contact at an offshore sports book told us, “Betting has been heavy on the Giants because Eli Manning looks like the ‘real deal’ with his 101 QB rating, 11 TDs and just 5 INTs.  A lot of bettors seem to be focusing on THIS Manning brother…  But the interesting thing is that a few sharps have gone against the grain and took Miami.  The line actually ticked down for large bettors.

Indeed, the line opened at Miami +10, but CRIS currently has the game listed at Miami +9.5.  Sports Insights proprietary betting percentages show that only 17% — or only 1 in 6 bets — is taking the Miami Dolphins.  We will “bet against the public” and follow the lead of the “sharps.”

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the NFL Betting TrendsNFL Betting System plays and weather alerts have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Here are some other reasons why we like the Dolphins:

  • The Miami Dolphins are winless, at 0-6.  All kinds of rumors are swirling around the team.  This definitely qualifies as “buying at a low.”
  • Although they have yet to win a game, the Dolphins have stayed relatively close (within double-digits) in four of their losses.  
  • Like last year, Eli Manning has started the season hot.  During his career, Manning has been streaky, showing signs of greatness, but then having periods of mistakes and interceptions.  We’ll take a jab at “selling the Giants and Manning at a high.”
  • Like Manning, the Giants have been inconsistent this season, beating teams like Buffalo (by 3) and Arizona (by 4), but also losing to Seattle and Washington.
  • As a result, we are comfortable taking the Dolphins +10.  Our team of researchers particularly like NFL underdogs receiving at least 7 points.  

If you shop around, you can grab the Dolphins at +10 at some “public books” such as SportsInterAction (SIA).

Miami Dolphins +10 (SIA)

If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try Sports Insights’ Premium Pro Membership.  It should be another exciting NFL weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest Real Time OddsNFL Betting Trends and NFL Betting System Picks. I’ll be back next Saturday with the new edition of NFL Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio