NFL Marketwatch Week 11 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. The column takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting. is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Saturday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

NFL Marketwatch Performance

Recap of Last Week’s “Game to Watch” (6-4 = 60.0%)

In this topsy-turvy NFL season, last week’s NFL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Seattle Seahawks, beat the Baltimore Ravens outright, 22-17.  The pendulum continues to swing back and forth for many teams.  Along with the Baltimore Ravens, the hot Philadelphia Eagles and NY Jets suffered losses this past week.  There is decent “parity” in the NFL, and on “any given Sunday” anything can happen.  The NFL Marketwatch is now 6-4 for the season.  Since its inception more than six years ago, Sports Insights’ popular NFL Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of about 57%.  

Sports Insights’ Best Bets have gotten off to a 15-13 record this season.  Last season, Sports Insights’ contrarian methods of Betting Against the Public, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and Marketwatch had a solid NFL season, producing a combined winning percentage of about 55% with NFL Squares at 57%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

View Last Week’s Column

Tracking Public Performance

The Public had another solid week, going 4-3 in lopsided-bet games in Week 10.  This brings the public’s cumulative record to a competitive 42-38 (52.5%) in lopsided-bet games this year.  New England and Pittsburgh were big winners for “public” bettors.  It wasn’t a bad weekend for sportsbooks because San Diego failed to cover the spread on a busy betting day — on Thursday Night Football.  In addition, Baltimore and Buffalo were heavily-bet losers for the public, to help pad the sportsbooks’ coffers.  Over the past six seasons, the public has been correct only about 48% of the time against the spread in “lopsided-bet” games,  which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys

This is currently one of the heaviest-bet games of the weekend.  The betting public likes what they are seeing in Dallas — and the public is not impressed by the 3-6 Redskins. Including teasers and parlays, about 80% of all bets are taking the Dallas Cowboys, as -7.5-point visiting favorites.  We will “bet against the public” and take the Redskins as home underdogs.

This game is a true “buy low, sell high” match-up.  After a rocky start to the season for the Cowboys and Tony Romo, Dallas has started to put things together.  The Cowboys have won two games in a row and they are in the thick of the playoff race at 5-4.  In addition, Dallas is coming off of a huge 44-7 over a solid Buffalo Bills squad.  On the other hand, the Redskins seem headed in the opposite direction.  After starting the season 3-1, the Redskins have lost 5 games in a row.

The line is generally available at Washington +7.5, but if you shop at a “public book” you will be able to find Washington +8.  This game doesn’t quite fall into the 80/20 betting system highlighted by my article here — as well as a Wall Street Journal article highlighting Sports Insights — but it is close.  Sports Insights’ analysts also like this play because we are getting more than the the key 7 number.  Our research has shown that there is a bias for betting on NFL dogs receiving at least 7 points.

Here are several other reasons why we like the Redskins this week:

  • This is a big divisional rivalry, and we see the Redskins getting up to face the Cowboys.
  • Tony Romo and Dallas have both been inconsistent this season.
  • Dallas’ huge win last week gives us additional value on the point spread.
  • Although the Redskins are just 3-6, they have been outscored just 136-178 this season.

If you shop around, you can grab the Redskins +8 at some “public books.”

Washington Redskins +8 (Bodog)

If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try Sports Insights’ Premium Pro Membership.  It should be another exciting NFL weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest Real Time OddsNFL Betting Trends and NFL Betting System Picks. I’ll be back next Saturday with the new edition of NFL Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio