NFL Marketwatch Week 1 2011-12

By Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, Founder and President of Sports Insights, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on
Saturday mornings.

Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and NFL Betting Systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games.

Sports Insights takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article recently published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting.  Sports Insights is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles on:  comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

Recapping the 2010 Regular Season

Overall 2010-11 NFL Playoffs (2-1)

Overall 2010 Regular Season (14-12-1 = 53.8%)

NFL Marketwatchended with a positive record of 53.8% for the 2010-11 NFL regular season. This brings the six-year record of the NFL Marketwatch to a solid 56.5% winning percentage, as shown below.  Our record has been profitable every season except for the 2009-10 season, when Marketwatch was 52.1%, just below the magical number of 52.4% needed to beat the -110 vig.

NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance

Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2010-11 14-12 53.8%
NFL 2009-10 25-23 52.1%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 153-118 56.5%

Recap of Betting Against the Public and 2010-11 NFL Regular Season

After a dismal start to the year, the Public moved towards respectability with a few winning weeks near the end of the season.  The Public finished with a record of 63-64 = 49.6% in lopsided-bet games for the 2010 NFL season.  This, combined with the “vig” that the sportsbooks collect — made it a still-profitable, “but not great” season for the sportsbooks on NFL sides.

Sports Insights’ contrarian method of Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, including Square Plays, Best Bets, and MarketWatch had a solid season, with Square Plays and NFL MarketWatch producing a combined winning percentage of just under 55%.  NFL Squares ended the regular season at 57%.  Check out the SportsInsights.com Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and Sports Insights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.


Week 1 Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

This game has many of the factors that we look for — based on our philosophy of “contrarian betting approaches.”  The betting public is pounding an overwhelming number of bets down on the mighty New England Patriots. Although the Patriots have not won the Super Bowl the past few seasons, they remain a powerhouse — going 14-2 last year and amassing the best “net points” (“Points for” minus “Points against”) in the league.  These kinds of stats make for strong “public opinion.”  And strong public opinion leads to contrarian value for “betting against the Public.”  

More than 80% of the bets are landing on the Patriots, with more than 85% of teasers and parlays taking the favored Pats.  This kind of one-sided betting activity has moved the line from the opener of Miami +3.5 / +4 — all the way up to Miami +7.  The line has been as high as +7.5 at SportsInteraction — but has settled back to a generally-available +7.  We like that kind of line value.  In addition to “Betting against the Public” and grabbing line value around the key number of 7, here are some other betting trends pointing to value on the Miami Dolphins:

  • This game is a divisional rivalry match-up.  Teams get up for rivalries: emotions and motivation run high. The Dolphins are at home and are definitely a “live home dog.”
  • We also like getting some “decent” points.  Our Sports Insights’ team of analysts have researched almost a decade’s worth of NFL sports betting data — and in the NFL, our researchers like the additional value that can be obtained by taking “material” points (especially when the spread expands to 7 or more points).
  • Although this is a Monday Night game, it is the heaviest-bet game of the weekend (with more bets than even the nearer-games on Sunday).

Remember to keep an eye on the latest line and shop for the best line.  The line has moved up — and continued one-sided action can increase the line even more.

Miami Dolphins +7

It should be another exciting NFL weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest Real Time OddsNFL Betting Trends and NFL Betting System Picks. I’ll be back next Saturday with the new edition of NFL Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

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