By Daniel Fabrizio
The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. The column takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting.“ SportsInsights.com is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as articles comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.
The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Saturday mornings.
Recapping the 2011 Regular Season (12-5 = 70.6%)
Our gut-wrenching play on St. Louis + 11 for the last selection of the regular season covered the spread. This concluded a highly successful regular season for the NFL Marketwatch — and improved Sports Insights’ NFL Marketwatch to 12-5 (70.6%) for the regular season. Since its inception more than seven years ago, Sports Insights’ popular NFL Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of over 57%.
Sports Insights’ NFL Best Bets and NFL Marketwatch have combined for about a (60%) record this season. Last season, Sports Insights’ contrarian methods of Betting Against the Public, including Square Plays, Best Bets, and Marketwatch had a solid NFL season — and produced a combined winning percentage of about 55%, with NFL Squares at 57%. Check out the SportsInsights.com Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
I would like to thank the odds makers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and thoughts. It has been an education for myself, the team at Sports Insights — and hopefully our readers. I would also like to thank our readers and especially our Members. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope that the NFL Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of contrarian value in sports investing.
Tracking Public Performance
The public had another decent week, going 4-3 in lopsided-bet games, defined as games with 65% or more of the bets on one team. The public ended the regular season with a cumulative record of 74-72 (50.7%) for the 2011 NFL Regular Season in these types of games. This is still not good enough to beat the vig, but better than the public has done historically (about 48%) in “public” games. The success of the NFL Marketwatch shows that extreme betting percentages and “ugly” plays can capture more value for contrarian sports bettors.
NFL Playoff Outlook and Summary
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone — and their mother — wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They will shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Sports Insights takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and Sports Insights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.
If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try Sports Insights’ Premium Pro Membership. It should be another exciting NFL weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest Real Time Odds, NFL Betting Trends and NFL Betting System Picks. I’ll be back next Saturday with the new edition of NFL Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!